Attack shows how war in Gaza is spreading through Middle East
The deaths of three US soldiers are the first since 7 October and because of the location, the Jordanian border, and the anticipated American response, this is certainly an escalation in the wider Middle East conflict.
The target, Tower 22, is not a conventional US military outpost in the region.
It’s a crossing point between Jordan and Syria, established since at least 2015 and used as an infiltration point for US special forces to enter and exit Syria.
While the base is on the Jordanian side of the border, the attacks were likely launched from within Syria.
Jordan has publicly distanced itself from these attacks, which might have something to do with Jordan’s preference that US military presence on their soil is kept below the radar, but it equally might point to a special operations position that wasn’t as well guarded as more established bases.
It also suggests an intelligence failure to prevent the attack.
Ever since 7 October, Jordan, with its large Palestinian population, has been deeply concerned the conflict would spread there.
The White House blames Iranian-backed militia, which is an obvious call, but could cover any number of groups.
The most likely is Kata’ib Hezbollah, a radical Shia group. They mustn’t be confused with the better-known and larger Hezbollah in Lebanon, although both have strong links to Iran and probably each other.
US forces have been targeted on many occasions in Iraq and Syria since 7 October, although many of these attacks have gone somewhat under the radar.
However, in recent weeks, America has been hitting Kata’ib Hezbollah hard. This attack could be a retaliation for that.
If nothing else, this again shows how the war in Gaza is spreading through the Middle East.
America, as Israel’s staunch ally, is finding itself increasingly dragged into multiple smaller-scale skirmishes around the region, whether it be in the Red Sea, Iraq, or, as was demonstrated over the past 24 hours, on the Jordan-Syria border.
The hope is that a ceasefire in Gaza, possibly close, will see things calm down elsewhere, but every passing week sees the fallout of Israel’s war affect other parts of the Middle East.
