التصنيف: جديد

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy started 2023 full of optimism.

In Kharkiv, Ukrainian forces had demonstrated they could push Russian invaders back, and Western confidence in Ukraine’s ability to prevail was growing.

Despite the risks to domestic national security, Western nations donated huge quantities of weapons, ammunition and high-tech capability from national stockpiles to support Ukraine’s proposed counteroffensive.

However, as 2023 ends and despite huge casualties, the Ukrainian offensive has done little to move the frontlines, and Russia appears on the front foot in the eastern Donbas region.

What went wrong?

The Ukrainian armed forces have proven amazingly resilient, courageous and determined in combating the military might of Russia. However, determination and resolve need to be matched with military equipment to create decisive military capability.

Although Ukraine is not a member of NATO, the West recognised that Russia’s illegal invasion could be a precursor to a wider ambition and responded accordingly.

However, the West was keen not to provoke a wider conflict between NATO and Russia. Growing confidence in Ukraine’s ability to strike back led to promises of Western tanks, ammunition, military training and high-tech precision weapons to support a Ukrainian spring offensive.

Although Russia had not anticipated the level of Ukrainian resistance they encountered initially, they were not about to make the same mistake again. Delays to the provision of Western military support – specifically tanks – meant that this year’s “spring” offensive did not start until June.

This delay enabled Russia to prepare a robust series of defensive lines – the Surovikin Line – comprising trenches, Dragon’s Teeth and minefields.

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In addition, not since 1917 has a major ground offensive been successfully conducted without air power. Despite President Zelenskyy’s best efforts, the West was not prepared to commit combatants to the conflict, and fighter jets alone would not have provided the capability Ukraine needed.

Indeed, without highly trained pilots, engineers, armourers and fighter controllers, simply donating F-16s risked providing Russia with some high-value aerial target practice.

Ukrainian morale has been buoyed by a series of attacks against Russian resupply lines, oil infrastructure, military HQs and ammo dumps across the year, most notably destroying 20% of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet despite not having a functioning Ukrainian navy.

However, the key metric of success in this conflict is territory gained, and Ukraine has not been successful at liberating its territory as anticipated.

Ukraine has made small tactical gains across the frontlines, but none proved decisive, and both sides suffered significant casualties.

Crucially, Russia maintained its focus on the Donbas. Despite the inclement winter weather and a casualty rate 50% higher than at the height of the battle for Bakhmut, Russia eventually seized Marinka just days ago.

Although the town is in ruins, President Vladimir Putin will be delighted that his forces have once again secured momentum in this grinding war of attrition.

So what next?

Ukraine is critically dependent on Western military and financial support to prevail, yet that support appears to be wavering.

Russia no longer presents a credible near-term threat to the West – it will take a decade to rebuild Russia’s conventional military capability – and the West has other domestic priorities competing for scarce resources.

The West will probably not abandon Ukraine, but it will struggle to match the support provided this past year, and even that was not sufficient to deliver battlefield success for Ukraine.

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President Zelenskyy’s relentless efforts to secure international support for Ukraine were crucial to ensure Ukraine’s survival, but as the war morphs into a more static phase, what next?

Neither side are likely to achieve their objectives, and a prolonged conflict will probably favour Russia in the long term. So, President Putin will end the year emboldened, although whether he is ready to negotiate an end to the conflict remains to be seen.

For a year that started with such optimism for Ukraine, President Zelenskyy now faces some very difficult decisions about his nation’s future – and indeed his own.

Powerful waves have smashed against sea walls in California, flooding beachfront buildings and leaving eight injured.

Video from Ventura Beach, northwest of Los Angeles, shows people running away as the powerful surge hits the wall there before sweeping inland.

More footage from local CCTV shows restaurants becoming suddenly flooded.

Eight people were taken to hospital on Thursday, and the beaches remain closed in the area.

The waves are the result of a stormy Pacific Ocean, with forecasters warning conditions could continue over the New Year weekend.

‘Extremely dangerous conditions’

The National Weather Service (NWS) said waves would reach up to 40ft (12 metres) high in some places along the coast, and warned people to stay away from beaches and coastal areas and take note of the barricades.

There are also warnings not to go in the water, or use jetties and piers.

“Tremendous wave energy across the coastal waters generating EXTREMELY DANGEROUS conditions at the beaches will continue through this weekend,” the local NWS office said on social media.

“Overall, this is expected to be an exceptional high-surf and coastal flooding event that has not occurred in many years. Take caution and heed the direction of local authorities and lifeguards.”

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Meanwhile, the local public information officer for Ventura Beach posted a video on X, formerly known as Twitter, showing diggers filling in gaps left by the powerful waves.

Further north in Aptos County, the surf smashed across the beach and into the car park, leaving a trail of debris behind.

“Mother Nature’s angry,” said Eve Krammer, an Aptos resident for several years. “I mean these waves are gnarly. They’re huge.”

There is also heavy damage at Stinson Beach and Capitola, where pictures show flooding to the local town.

The UN agency for Palestinian refugees has criticised the Israeli army after an aid convoy was allegedly shot at in Gaza on Thursday.

It said an armoured car was clearly marked with UNRWA (United Nations Relief and Works Agency) branding and was hit despite prior coordination with Israel to ensure it would be protected.

The vehicle was one of two returning to the south of Gaza after delivering supplies, including food, to Rimal in Gaza City in the north.

UNRWA director of communications Juliette Touma told Sky News the team came under gunfire just south of Wadi Gaza on Salah al Deen, the main road connecting the north and south of Gaza.

The aid staff “could see it was the Israeli army firing at the cars”, she said.

Thomas White, director of UNRWA affairs Gaza, wrote on X: “Aid workers should never be a target.”

Sky News has contacted the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) with a request to comment.

Meanwhile, Mark Regev, senior adviser to Israel’s prime minister, has claimed the UNRWA’s workers’ union is under the control of Hamas.

He told Sky News: “All the information he [Thomas White] is receiving is information that Hamas wants him to hear.

“And we have clear indications that Hamas is desperate for the international community to support a ceasefire because they [Hamas] see Israel’s military operation is moving ahead.

“We’re taking apart Hamas’s military machine, we’re eliminating its senior commanders, and they’re desperate for a ceasefire.

“They want to give the feeling there’s a humanitarian crisis, so there’s more pressure on Israel to cease fire, to save themselves.

“We can’t let them succeed in doing that.”

Asked whether there would be an investigation into UNRWA’s claims, he said: “There’s always an investigation. When we have made a mistake, we have admitted it.”

Read more:
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IDF shows media a Hamas tunnel

Elsewhere, Mercy Corps vice president Kate Phillips-Barrasso has warned aid is desperately needed throughout Gaza, where half a million people – a quarter of its 2.3 million residents – faced “catastrophic hunger and starvation”.

Some 85% of the population has been displaced by the IDF’s air and ground offensive after Hamas’s 7 October attack on Israel that saw 1,200 people killed.

The conflict has claimed the lives of more than 21,000 Palestinians, according to the Hamas-run Palestinian health ministry.

Ms Phillips-Barrasso said the amount of lifesaving goods being allowed to enter remains a drop in the ocean, far short from meeting Gazans’ basic and critical needs, even after Israel opened its Kerem Shalom border crossing.

Thursday’s alleged attack on the UNRWA vehicles came despite the agency conducting prior “deconfliction” with the Israeli army to ensure aid cars and personnel are protected on the roads, the UNRWA’s Ms Touma added.

She told Sky News: “We expect them to be protected. It should not happen. UN personnel and UN vehicles must be protected at all times.”

“Luckily, fortunately, no one was hurt.”

One vehicle was damaged, but made it back to the UNRWA base in the south of Gaza city, she said.