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Flying with the Icelandic coast guard low over Grindavik’s deserted streets, we followed the gash that has ripped the town apart.

It zig-zags across gardens, car parks and streets, through houses and the sports centre.

Iceland volcano live updates

A crack in the earth that stretches for nine miles across the Reykjanes Peninsula.

Steam still rises from hot water pipes that have been shattered by the shifting ground.

And in the most dangerous red zone an entire neighbourhood has slumped by almost a metre, undermined by the molten magma building up beneath.

We tracked the fault line north-east, a clear ridge in a sea of lava from volcanic activity long ago.

About a mile out of town is the area where scientists now believe a new eruption is most likely.

You wouldn’t know it on the surface, but this is where molten rock is still rising from deep within the Earth and the magma tunnel – or dyke as volcanologists call it – is at its widest.

Nearby, dozens of diggers, bulldozers and trucks are ripping up rock and earth to form a wall eight metres high.

The authorities hope it will be strong enough to protect a power station from a river of lava, and keep the heat and lights on for 35,000 homes.

Read more:

Inside the exclusion zone in Grindavik
How big could the volcano eruption be?
What is happening under the surface in Iceland?

This area of Iceland hadn’t had any eruptions for 800 years. But in 2021 the Fagradalsfjall volcano, about five miles from Grindavik, burst into life.

Two more eruptions followed, the most recent this summer.

We hovered just a few metres over the craters, where so recently molten rock had spewed into the air.

On the slopes of the most recent eruption, lava is still cooling and smoke rising into the chilly winter air.

It’s a reminder of how dynamic Iceland’s landscape is, shaped by volcanic activity.

And a reminder too of how powerless the people of Grindavik are against the immense forces of nature.

Opinion polls are neck and neck before Sunday’s presidential election in Argentina. The run-off vote will pit Sérgio Massa, the centrist candidate from the governing Peronist coalition, against hard-right libertarian Javier Milei.

In October’s first-round ballot, Massa – the current finance minister – won 37 percent of the vote. Milei, meanwhile, convinced just 30 percent of the voting public. Candidates must secure 45 percent of the vote to win in the first round.

Last month’s result surprised many political pollsters, given that Massa is presiding over an economy with an inflation rate of 142.7 percent, coupled with simmering frustrations about Argentina’s Peronist establishment.

On top of well-timed welfare handouts, Massa’s opening victory was influenced by a successful marketing campaign which warned of spikes in utility prices in the event that Milei, who has pledged to roll back state subsidies, wins.

Milei, a former TV personality turned congressman, is a political outsider who has drawn parallels with Donald Trump. Along with his hardline running mate Victoria Villarruelm, Milei has downplayed the atrocities of Argentina’s military dictatorship.

His success has been fuelled by years of economic frustration. With four in 10 Argentines now living in poverty, the economy is edging towards its sixth recession in a decade. Inflation, a key concern among voters, is in triple digits and rising.

“The price of basic goods has skyrocketed,” said Jorge Lopez, a taxi driver from Buenos Aires. “The money I make buys me less and less. It’s simply not enough, and it’s getting harder to make ends meet.”

Still, Mile’s populist rhetoric has proved divisive. In a country where two-thirds of the population is Roman Catholic, his unflattering description of the Pope, an Argentian, as “a leftist son of a bitch” alienated moderate voters. He has also championed the sale of human organs.

Massa, though part of a left-wing Peronist administration, represents the more centrist wing of the party.

Peronists, who first came to power in 1946 under populist general Juan Perón, have been Argentina’s dominant political force for decades. Today, Peronism represents a patchwork of economic programs, including state-led industrial policy and subsidies for basic goods.

A seasoned operator, Massa is seen as someone able to negotiate across the political aisle. In August, successfully brokered a $7.5bn payout from the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

The two candidates have opposing views on virtually every economic issue, including the size and role of the state.

‘Another debt restructuring likely’

“Massa will toe the Peronist line, attempting to roll back subsidies without endangering the welfare state,” says Pablo Bortz, Professor of Macroeconomics at the University of San Martín.

Massa, who remains in charge of state coffers, spent heavily in the run-up to October’s election. He expanded income tax exemptions, boosted informal worker handouts and gave $100 – at the official exchange rate, which is 2.5 times less than the informal grey market rate – to pensioners.

To be sure, many of these measures are likely to be reversed after December 10, when a new government will assume office. “Massa is aware he’ll have to implement austerity measures … he’s now talking about a budget surplus of 1 percent of GDP next year,” said Bortz.

Last year, Argentina ran a budget deficit – where expenditure exceeds revenues –  of 2.4 percent of GDP.

Argentina still owes roughly $43bn to the IMF and $65bn to external bondholders from debt restructured in 2020. Looking ahead, numerous obligations are due in 2024 and 2025. “To repay these debts, Massa has hinted at gradual fiscal consolidation,” Bortz added.

Milei, meanwhile, has pledged to slash government spending by a whopping 15 percent of GDP. His austerity programmes would focus on removing subsidies for utilities, like gas and electricity. He has also hinted at privatising state companies and scaling back public health expenditure.

“Clearly, this radical program spooked some voters”, said Bortz. “Massa’s plan is more politically feasible, given Peronism’s support in Congress. But even if he wins, he’d have to contend with very low reserves and no access to international capital markets.”

The Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) has drained its foreign exchange reserves to support the peso, which suffered from pronounced devaluations in recent years. This, in turn, has undermined the government’s ability to repay its debt.

“I think another debt restructuring is likely next year, irrespective of who wins. To restore debt onto a sustainable path, the government will have to impose austerity and economic reforms, which could spark protests. Still, they’ll be much tamer if Massa wins,” Bortz added.

‘Prices are so high’

According to Malena Pesce, a teacher working in San Isidro, a suburb of Argentina’s capital, “Prices are so high it affects how much food I can buy. I’ve also had to cut back on recreational activities, like going out to dinner or the movies, with my kids.”

Inflation is not new in Argentina, averaging 50 percent from 2018-2022. The additional rise in prices since then can be chalked up to several factors.

The war in Ukraine and the subsequent US Federal Reserve tightening campaign saw the value of the peso plunge, making imports more expensive. Then, a punishing drought earlier this year blighted millions of acres of corn, wheat and soy, crimping peso demand even further.

Argentina also has a history of fiscal negligence. The government has defaulted on its debt nine times since independence in 1816. During periods of stress, authorities have periodically reverted to printing money to finance the deficit, which can raise inflation.

Massa himself oversaw central bank money-printing to cover budget shortfalls. On this point, Milei has said that “eliminating the central bank is essential”. He sees the BCRA as inflation-stoking and state-captured.

“Milei’s plan to remove the central bank is high-risk and would ensure the loss of monetary authority in Argentina,” Matias Vernengo, a former BCRA official, told Al Jazeera.

To carry out his plan, the self-described “anarcho-capitalist” has floated the idea of ditching the peso, which he has described as being worth less than “excrement”, and dollarising – adopting the greenback as Argentina’s sole legal tender.

But such a move would involve “rescinding the ability to borrow in our own currency and tying us to the US money supply … which would straight-jacket our ability to pursue expansionary growth policies, which Argentina needs,” Vernengo said.

“Dollarisation would also require a stock of dollars to act as a liquidity buffer. As the BCRA has dwindling reserves, ditching the peso risks sparking a real currency collapse, banking sector jitters and social unrest. It could be disastrous,” he added.

“So, Massa’s approach to lower central bank funding and reduce the country’s deficit is more likely to hold water. That said, he’ll have to get lucky to bring down prices. If the US Federal Reserve were to lower rates next year, it would certainly help,” said Vernengo.

Monetary policy has been the most talked-about policy issue in this election. “Managing inflation in Argentina is anything but easy and I expect prices to continue climbing, whoever wins. That said, we could tip into hyperinflation if Milei gets his way,” warned Vernengo.

Pesce, the teacher, maintained a positive outlook: “In spite of everything, I remain optimistic about Argentina. My hope is that working people can one day buy food and pay their bills, maybe even go on vacation … to meet the basic needs of a decent life.”

Amman, Jordan – The Israeli army released footage on October 22 of its Maglan commando unit deploying a new precision-guided 120mm mortar bomb called the Iron Sting, against Hamas in Gaza.

The bomb’s Haifa-based manufacturer, Elbit Systems, has been advertising its qualities on the public relations page of its website since March 2021, when it was integrated into the Israeli military.

Benny Gantz, then Israel’s defence minister and now a part of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s war cabinet, described the Iron Sting as “designed to engage targets precisely, in both open terrains and urban environments, while reducing the possibility of collateral damage and preventing injury to non-combatants”.

It’s a claim echoed by Mark Regev, Netanyahu’s former spokesperson, for the country’s overall approach to its war on Gaza, in which, he has said, Israel is “trying to be as surgical as humanly possible”.

Yet, more than one month after Israel launched the aerial bombardment of Gaza following a surprise Hamas attack, it has killed at least 11,400 Palestinian civilians, and injured 30,000 in the besieged strip and the occupied West Bank. More than 4,700 of Gaza’s children are dead. Hamas fighters killed 1,200 people in their October 7 attack.

Israel’s devastatingly “surgical” killing machines, tested on Palestinians, have global takers, say analysts.

‘Tissue torn from flesh’

Ahmed Saeed al-Najar, 28, was driving his taxi in Rafah during Gaza’s third war of 2014 when a drone missile came in through the open sunroof of his taxi. It exploded in the car, instantly decapitating and killing all six of his passengers, his best friend included.

The car had been targeted by an Israeli Spike drone rocket, which can be modified to carry a fragmentation sleeve of thousands of 3mm tungsten cubes, said to affect an area of approximately 20 metres in diameter. The cubes puncture metal and “cause tissue to be torn from flesh”, literally shredding anyone within range, according to Erik Fosse, a Norwegian doctor working in Gaza.

Al-Najar, rescued from the wreckage of his car, suffered extensive burns, the loss of his right eye, multiple shrapnel wounds and the loss of his right leg from the mid-thigh point, amputated by the blast.

But by 2014, drones that carry the Spike rocket had already become highly sought-after by other countries.

The Heron TP “Eitan” drone is Israel’s largest unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) and was brought into service in 2007. Manufactured by the state-owned Israel Aerospace Industries (IAI) — Israel’s largest aerospace and defence company and the country’s largest industrial exporter – it can fly up to 40 hours continuously and can carry four Spike missiles.

The Eitan was first used during “Operation Cast Lead” in the 2008-09 Gaza war for attacks against civilians, according to the non-governmental organisation, Drone Wars UK. According to Defence for Children International, of the 353 children killed and 860 injured during Operation Cast Lead, 116 died from missiles launched by drones.

After the war, IAI witnessed a surge in orders of Heron variant drones from at least 10 countries between 2008-2011. During this period, more than 100 drones were purchased, leased or acquired under joint venture schemes.

India – Israel’s largest military buyer, which operates more than 100 Israeli-made UAVs – purchased 34 Heron drones in this period, followed by France (24), Brazil (14) and Australia (10), according to a 2014 report by Drone Wars UK.

That does not mean that Israel wages wars to advertise its weapons, said experts. “Nobody fights wars just to show off their weapons,” said Lawrence Freedman, emeritus professor of war studies at King’s College London.

Yet, at the same time, “in every war against Gaza a range of weapons and surveillance tech has been deployed against the Palestinians which is then marketed and sold to huge amounts of nations around the world,” said Antony Loewenstein, independent journalist and author of The Palestine Laboratory.

‘An insurance policy’

Weapons exports have uses beyond the revenue they bring to Israel.

“It’s more than that, it’s also an insurance policy to insulate themselves from the intense pressure to change their behaviour over the decades-long occupation of Palestinians,” said Loewenstein.

Last month, Colombian President Gustavo Petro refused to condemn the surprise attack launched by Hamas on October 7 as a “terrorist attack” instead responding that “terrorism is killing innocent children in Palestine”.

In response, the Israeli government halted all sales of defence and security equipment and associated services to the Latin American country.

Colombia is one of an estimated 130 countries that have bought weapons, drones and cyberspying technology from Israel, the world’s 10th-largest weapons exporter.

Israel is, by far, the world’s largest exporter of military drones: in 2017, it was estimated that it was behind nearly two-thirds of all UAV exports over the previous three decades.

Elbit, the maker of the Iron Sting, provides up to 85 percent of the land-based equipment procured by the Israeli military and about 85 percent of its drones, according to Database of Israeli Military and Security Export (DIMSE).

But after the 2014 Gaza war, its export market expanded significantly, too. Erbit promotes its Hermes UAVs as “combat-proven” and the “primary platform of the IDF in counter-terror operations”.

The Hermes 450 and Hermes 900 were both used extensively in “Operation Protective Edge”, Israel’s 2014 war, during which 37 percent of fatalities were attributed to drone attacks, according to an estimate by the Gaza-based Al Mezan Center for Human Rights.

Elbit subsequently secured contracts for the new Hermes 900 drone with more than 20 countries worldwide including the Philippines, which purchased 13, as well as India, Azerbaijan, Canada, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Iceland, the European Union, Mexico, Switzerland and Thailand. In March 2023, Elbit Systems announced their 120th order for the Hermes 900.

The new “Nizoz” (Spark) surveillance drone manufactured by Rafael, a state-owned weapons contractor that forms the Big Three of Israel’s arms industry with IAI and Elbit, has reportedly now entered the current Gaza war. Rafael has an order backlog which currently stands at $10.1bn.

Al Jazeera approached Elbit Systems, Rafael Advanced Defense Systems and IAI for comment but the firms were yet to respond before time of publication.

Hard to track

For all of its military export successes, the full extent of Israel’s defence industry sales remains masked.

A report from Amnesty International in 2019 noted that the whole process by which Israel sells arms is shrouded in secrecy “with no documentation of sales, one cannot know when [these arms] were sold, by which company, how many and so on”.

Amnesty found that “Israeli companies exported weapons which reached their destination after a series of transactions, thereby skirting international monitoring”.

Israel has not ratified the Arms Trade Treaty, which prohibits the sale of weapons at risk of being used in genocide and crimes against humanity. As such, its weapons exports have influenced the course of history for several nations, many led by controversial regimes.

Israel sold weapons to the South African apartheid government in 1975 and even agreed to supply nuclear warheads, according to declassified documents – though Israel denies doing so. Napalm and other weapons were supplied to El Salvador during its counterinsurgency wars between 1980-1992 that killed more than 75,000 civilians.

In 1994, Israeli-made bullets, rifles and grenades were allegedly used in Rwanda’s genocide which killed at least 800,000 people. Israel supplied weapons to the Serbian army that waged war against Bosnia from 1992-1995.

Despite the Israeli government’s own statement in 2018 declaring it had ceased sales to Myanmar, the Haaretz newspaper reported last year that weapons manufacturers continued supplying the military government until 2022, in violation of the 2017 international arms embargo against the country.

And, in September this year, Israel supplied UAVs, missiles and mortars to Azerbaijan for its campaign to recapture Nagorno-Karabakh, during which 100,000 ethnic Armenians were displaced.

Part of what makes it hard to track Israeli weapons exports is the very nature of the arms trade. “Governments buy and sell to each other directly and through their large defence contractors, but also there is a parallel trade by private firms that is usually not illegal but provides plausible deniability,” Stephen Badsey, professor of conflict studies at Wolverhampton University, said.

The largest single control that seller nations maintain over the use of their weapons by other countries is the requirement for “end user” or “end use” rules, Badsey said. But as a major weapons exporter that doesn’t subscribe to the Arms Trade Treaty, Israel has built a reputation for loose export norms.

In 2018, former Philippines President Rodrigo Duterte said he would ask his military to purchase weapons exclusively from Israel because, unlike the United States or Europe, Israel did not impose restrictions.

New government regulations introduced last year will allow Israel to sell more weapons to a greater range of countries without licences – and so, with less oversight. It pays: Israeli weapon export figures have doubled over the past decade, totalling $12.5bn last year.

Battle proven on ‘human animals’

Two days after the October 7 Hamas attack, Israel’s minister of defence Yoav Gallant compared the Palestinian people with “human animals”.

To Loewenstein, the dehumanising comments were unsurprising. “It is obvious over Israel’s occupation and countless wars that Palestinians are treated as second-class citizens. Like animals,” he said.

Over the years, the Israeli army has tested rubber bullets, artificial intelligence-powered robotic guns and various forms of crowd dispersal solutions, which have inflicted severe injuries on Palestinians.

Nabeel al-Shawa, a consultant orthopaedic surgeon who has worked in Gaza since 1978, treated many Palestinians wounded by Israeli firing on the Great March of Return in 2018 – when tens of thousands of Palestinians demanded they be allowed to return to the land they were forcibly removed from in 1948.

“For Israeli snipers, this was merely target practice with humans,” he said. “Most patients had been shot in joints deliberately to cause maximum damage, but not kill.

“These new rounds the Israeli army used caused injuries I have never seen before. In some cases the limb appeared intact, however, during surgery, I could not distinguish between bone and soft tissue.”

So can Israeli weapons manufacturers legitimately market their weaponry as “battle proven” when the combat often targets unarmed civilians?

They can, said Zoran Kusovac, a geopolitical and security analyst.

“If a weapon’s main purpose is proven in the actual battlefield or in as near realistic circumstances as possible, then they are battle proven,” he said. “You cannot blame countries for buying from Israel. You can test all you want in a lab, but Israel is testing in the field, and as there are never any lags of time between one period of combat to the next, the development cycle is virtually in real time.

“And there is of course that adage; that if it’s good enough for the IDF, then it must be good enough for us.”

New weapons test in Gaza 2023?

Ashraf al-Qudra, spokesperson for the Ministry of Health in Gaza, last week said in a press statement that medical teams in the enclave had “observed severe burns on the bodies of Palestinians who were killed and wounded by Israel’s bombs  – whether caused by an unknown weapon or not – is something they have not seen in previous conflicts”.

Dr Ahmed el-Mokhallalati from the burn and plastic surgery division at al-Shifa Hospital, in an interview with the Toronto Star, described the wounds as “very deep – third and fourth-degree burns, and the skin tissue is impregnated with black particles and most of the skin thickness and all the layers underneath are burned down to the bone”.

El-Mokhallalati said that these weren’t phosphorus burns, “but a combination of some kind of incendiary bomb wave and other components”.

The Israeli military has not commented so far on the statement made by Gaza’s Ministry. But the mystery incendiary bombs, the Iron Sting’s debut and the reported use of the new Spark drone in the current war suggest that Israel is once again testing new weapons in conflict.

“Israel’s weapons will continue to remain attractive to international buyers based on performance in the occupation,” Loewenstein said. “But Israel is not just selling weapons; they’re selling the ideology to other countries – of getting away with it.”

At midnight ‘devices to prevent entry’ will go up at four of the border crossings between the European neighbours.

Finland will place barriers on four of the eight border crossings it shares with Russia, as it seeks to stem a flow of asylum seekers.

The Finnish Border Guard said on Friday that the barriers will go up at midnight (22:00 GMT) at the Vaalimaa, Nuijamaa, Imatra and Niirala crossings in southeastern Finland.

“Our aim is to use barrier devices to prevent entry,” the Border Guard’s head of international affairs Matti Pitkaniitty told reporters. The measures are a response to changes in Russia’s border policy, he said.

Helsinki has accused Moscow of encouraging or turning a blind eye to undocumented migrants crossing over. Russia has denied the claim.

Finland announced earlier this week that it would close the four border crossings, which are the busiest points of travel between the two countries, with about 3,000 people crossing per day.

Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said that amid Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Moscow was seeking to destabilise his country in response to Helsinki’s decision to join NATO.

Finland’s action was supported by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

“Russia’s instrumentalisation of migrants is shameful. I fully support the measures taken by Finland,” von der Leyen said on X.

I had a call with PM @PetteriOrpo who informed me about the situation at the border with Russia.

Russia’s instrumentalisation of migrants is shameful.

I fully support the measures taken by Finland.

And I thank the Finnish Border Guards for protecting our European borders.

— Ursula von der Leyen (@vonderleyen) November 16, 2023

Finland’s neighbour Norway, which shares a border with Russia in the Arctic, has said it is also ready to close its border at short notice if necessary.

From Saturday, asylum seekers arriving via Russia will only be allowed to hand in their applications at two northern border crossings, at Salla and Vartius, Pitkaniitty said.

The border closures come amid growing tension between Russia and Finland over Helsinki’s military alliances since Russia’s war with Ukraine began.

Finland shares a 1,340km (833-mile) frontier with Russia that also serves as the European Union’s external border.

After Russia invaded Ukraine in February last year, EU member Finland abandoned its decades-long policy of military non-alignment. The country joined NATO in April.

Russia said at the time that it would take unspecified “countermeasures” in response.

Finland’s Border Guard has since tracked an uptick in undocumented arrivals, mostly from Africa and the Middle East.

Finland’s ombudsman for non-discrimination said on Thursday that Helsinki still had a duty under international treaties and EU law to allow asylum seekers to seek protection.

Finland is constructing a 200km (124-mile) fence on a section of the border, due to be completed by 2026.

Moscow begins shipments of 200,000 tonnes of grain months after it withdrew from UN-brokered Black Sea grain deal.

Russia’s agriculture minister says Moscow has begun free shipments of grain totalling up to 200,000 tonnes to six African countries, as promised by President Vladimir Putin.

In a statement posted on Telegram on Friday, Dmitry Patrushev said that ships headed for Burkina Faso and Somalia had already left Russian ports, and that additional shipments to Eritrea, Zimbabwe, Mali and Central African Republic would soon follow.

Putin had promised to deliver free grain to the six countries at a summit with African leaders in July, soon after Moscow withdrew from a deal that had allowed Ukraine to ship grain from its Black Sea ports despite the war with Russia.

The agreement, brokered by the United Nations and known as the Black Sea grain initiative, aimed to help avert famine by injecting more wheat, sunflower oil, fertiliser and other products into world markets, including for humanitarian needs.

After Russia announced its plan to send free shipments, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres warned that a “handful of donations” would not correct the “dramatic impact” caused by the end of the Black Sea deal.

Since quitting the arrangement, Russia has repeatedly bombed Ukrainian ports and grain storage facilities, and Kyiv says hundreds of thousands of tonnes of cereals have been destroyed.

Alternative corridor

In response to the collapse of the deal, Ukraine announced a “humanitarian corridor” hugging the western Black Sea coast near Romania and Bulgaria.

On Friday, the Interfax-Ukraine news agency quoted a senior Ukrainian government official as saying that about 151 ships have used the new Black Sea shipping corridor since it was set up in August.

A total of 4.4 million metric tonnes of cargo, including 3.2 million tonnes of grain, has been shipped via the corridor, Yuriy Vaskov, deputy minister for renovation and infrastructure, was quoted as saying.

Vaskov said that 30 ships were being loaded at Ukrainian ports. They included 22 ships that would carry 700,000 tonnes of grain and eight ships readying 500,000 tonnes of other cargo.

Ukraine is one of the world’s leading grain producers and exporters. Keeping grain exports flowing is key for its economy, which shrank by about a third last year. It is expected to grow by about 5 percent this year.