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Guatemala City, Guatemala – Blockades were set up around campus. Banners were unfurled. And key buildings at the University of San Carlos (USAC), Guatemala’s sole public university, came under student occupation.

It was 2022, and the campus was in uproar over the election of a new rector, Walter Mazariegos, to lead the school.

Critics, including the United States State Department, had denounced the process as “fraudulent”. Among those raising their voices in outrage was a member of Guatemala’s Congress, little known outside his country at the time.

But now, the dark-horse progressive Bernardo Arevalo has rocketed into the international spotlight as Guatemala’s president-elect — and his statements about the protests are at the centre of a new controversy erupting in the country.

On November 17, prosecutors filed a request to strip Arevalo and his running mate Karin Herrera of their political immunity for supporting the student protests on social media.

Human rights advocates and observers have warned that the request is the latest attempt to derail Arevalo’s presidency, as the political establishment reels from his surprise victory in August’s election.

“It is really a veiled threat to the transition,” Luis Mack, a Guatemalan independent political analyst and political science professor at USAC, told Al Jazeera.

“The case has no legal basis. But any excuse can serve to criminalise you and intimidate you.”

Arevalo, an anticorruption candidate, has faced a series of legal actions since emerging as a frontrunner in the June 25 general elections.

As he advanced to the run-off race, prosecutors sought to suspend his political party, the Seed Movement. Police also raided the party’s offices, and his opponents have publicly questioned the vote tally, even filing complaints of fraud.

But the latest move against Arevalo heightens the legal jeopardy he and his political party face, leaving him vulnerable to criminal investigation — and potentially prosecution.

A wide-ranging investigation

The request to remove Arevalo’s political immunity comes as part of a larger investigation into the occupation at USAC, which lasted over 380 days. It ended in June.

Cultural Heritage prosecutor Angel Saul Sanchez has accused participants of aggravated usurpation, destruction of cultural property, illicit association and sedition.

But he cast a wide net as well, using legal means to pursue supporters of the protest movement as well as active participants.

Already, the Guatemalan national police have carried out 31 raids as part of the case. Sanchez has also obtained arrest warrants for 27 people, including members of the Seed Movement.

When outlining his case in a press conference on November 16, Sanchez alleged that Arevalo and Herrera were part of the protesters’ political backing, helping to manage the university takeover from the sidelines.

“We clearly establish that there is a timeline in which the university is a political looting,” Sanchez said, projecting images onscreen of Herrera attending a protest and Arevalo speaking on the video platform, TikTok.

Their actions, Sanchez warned, could lead to charges of illicit association and influence peddling.

But before that happens, Sanchez’s request to revoke Arevalo’s immunity would have to overcome several hurdles, according to political analyst Marielos Chang.

“Right now, the Supreme Court of Justice has to authorise the stripping of his immunity,” Chang said. “And after, Congress has to vote.”

If both steps are successful, a court case against Arevalo can move forward, but Gabriela Carrera, a professor at Rafael Landivar University, said a trial could stretch on for years.

In the meantime, stripping Arevalo’s and Herrera’s immunity could still disrupt the transition of power. “This would be the consolidation of the current coup,” Carrera said.

Free speech implications

Critics, however, have denounced the whole investigation into the protests as an attempt to suppress free speech and political dissent in Guatemala. The rector whose election sparked the protests is seen as an ally of the ruling conservative party, Vamos.

“This, after many years, is the first case of massive criminalisation of protest,” Claudia Samayoa, a Guatemalan human rights activist, told Al Jazeera.

Guatemala began its transition to democracy in 1985. In the years prior, however, dissent had been censored and suppressed under a series of violent dictatorships.

But even after democracy was established, activists, journalists and public figures continued to face intimidation, despite free-speech protections enshrined in the constitution.

For Samayoa, the case against the university protesters is particularly jarring because of its wide scope.

“Not only those who protest are being criminalised, but also those who support the protesters,” Samayoa said. “This case is completely against freedom of speech.”

Arevalo was indeed a vocal supporter of the university protests, using his online platforms to denounce what he considered evidence of “corruption and authoritarianism”.

“[President Alejandro] Giammattei has captured USAC. Mazariegos is an illegitimate rector,” Arevalo said in one social media post. “I am with the students.”

But he has denied committing any criminal actions, calling the latest accusations “spurious and unacceptable”.

The limits of immunity

However, Attorney General Maria Consuelo Porras — Sanchez’s boss — and Giammattei have rejected criticism that the legal actions against Arevalo are politically motivated.

In Guatemala, elected officials and political candidates generally receive immunity from prosecution, in order to stop their rivals from using the legal system against them.

But in recent years, a number of politicians have faced attempts to strip them of immunity.

One of the most high-profile cases was that of former President Otto Perez Molina. During his presidency, in 2015, Guatemala’s congress voted to remove his political immunity after allegations emerged that he helped lead a corruption ring within the government.

Facing a criminal investigation, Perez Molina resigned from office the very next day. He was convicted and sentenced to 16 years in prison in 2022.

Mack, the political analyst, believes the legal immunity Guatemalan politicians receive has contributed to the country’s larger problems with corruption. It allows politicians who face legitimate accusations to avoid investigation.

“The right to immunity is a reasonable protection in a democratic system,” Mack said. “However, in the last few years, it went from being a protection against spurious trials to something that promotes impunity.”

But Mack draws a distinction between legitimate corruption charges and the allegations Arevalo faces.

The recent arrest warrants, raids and public accusations indicate that the Public Ministry — helmed by Attorney General Porras — is willing to forge ahead regardless of Guatemala’s immunity law, he explained.

“The fact that the Public Ministry has advanced with an investigation without having removed [the right to immunity] demonstrates once again with which the Public Ministry is acting on bad faith,” he said.

An international crisis

The question of whether the Public Ministry will succeed in lifting Arevalo’s immunity is one that could have massive implications for Guatemala’s democracy — and stability across Central America.

Critics question whether the legal proceedings will ultimately prevent Arevalo from taking office on January 14.

“There is a lot of concern,” said Ana Maria Mendez Dardon, the Central America director for the Washington Office on Latin America, a US-based advocacy organisation.

“Obviously the democratic deterioration that Guatemala is experiencing affects the population but also the interests of the international community.”

She explained that Guatemala has become a “priority” for foreign policy, particularly in the US, which is grappling with a crisis at its southern border, driven by migration through Central America.

The US government also collaborates with Guatemala to combat transnational crime organisations linked to drug trafficking and other illegal enterprises.

“To address organised crime and irregular migration, you need to have a strengthened state, a strong state,” Mendez Dardon said.

Already, members of the US State Department have slammed Guatemala’s Public Ministry, calling its attempt to strip Arevalo of his immunity a “malign request”.

“The US rejects continued egregious attempts to undermine democracy in Guatemala. These actions threaten the stability of not only Guatemala but the region as a whole,” Brian Nichols, the assistant secretary for the Western hemisphere, posted on social media.

According to Mendez Dardon, the US sees its ideals reflected in Arevalo — and that gives it a strong incentive to back Guatemala’s president-elect.

“I think that the United States identifies Bernardo Arevalo as an anticorruption candidate and more democratic promise, and he will be a perfect interlocutor to move forward.”

Beit Ummar, occupied West Bank – Fidaa Abu Maria bustles around her simple, sparse home in Beit Ummar north of Hebron, worried then hopeful then scared, in turn.

After she makes her son’s bed, she turns to folding his freshly laundered clothes, seeming to whisper prayers to herself with each fold.

Her son, Ubai, may be coming home, and she wants to be ready, needs that little burst of hope and optimism.

His name was on an Israeli list of 300 people who may be released in an upcoming swap between Hamas and Israel. Fifty captives taken by Hamas to Gaza will be released, to be exchanged for 150 Palestinian women and child prisoners in Israeli jails – that means there is a 50/50 chance that Fidaa may see Ubai soon.

She constantly worries about him because when Ubai was arrested by Israeli forces on August 8, four months after his 18th birthday, he only had 30 percent use of one of his hands.

He had been shot in the elbow last November and had been undergoing various therapies to regain the use of his hand. But his treatment stopped once he was in the Israeli prison system.

Like many young Palestinian boys, this was sadly not the first time Ubai was arrested, he had been taken four times before that.

At the beginning of his detention, Ubai was assaulted by the prison guards, resulting in injuries to his head, and isolated for 14 days.

“His detention had so many beatings and assaults. I was so scared for his health because of the injury to his hand and because he hadn’t had a chance to get the surgery he was scheduled for. They were supposed to replace his wrist joint, but it never happened.

“Since October 7, we’ve been hearing that things got worse for prisoners in the occupation prisons, that they were all assaulted and deprived of the most basic rights such as food, clothing, things like that.”

Ubai’s father, Youssef, could barely hold his excitement and worry in. “We’ve been hopeful for a while now, and this morning, a friend called me. He follows Hebrew media, and he woke me up early in the morning to tell me Ubai’s name is on the list.

“I’ve been arrested before, and given the 30 times I was arrested, I see the release of my son as if he’s going to be reborn. Prisoners are attacked so much in the occupation prisons.

“We are so grateful to the people of Gaza, especially the martyrs and the wounded. All of this is thanks to God first and thanks to the valiant resistance that brought our sons out from darkness to light.”

Favourite foods and fresh linens

The Abu Maria home is sparse and very simple, neat as a pin and filled with the anxious excitement of the family members. Fidaa flits from one chore or another to sit on one of the beds in the family room to listen to the news.

“I’m happy. My feelings are like any Palestinian mother would have when she hears her son may be released: full of joy, but it is bittersweet because our tiny little joy is at the expense of the blood of the people in Gaza. I am grateful, so grateful.

“I’ve been cooking. I’m making his favourite food, stuffed zucchini in yoghurt sauce and the desserts he loves, homemade chocolate cakes. He prefers my baking to any other cakes because I am a home pastry chef.

“I keep saying that I will happily make him dessert for breakfast every single day, as much as he wants. I’ve set up his room and laundered his new clothes. Everybody is calling me, family and friends. Everyone is excited and wants to come share our joy and welcome him.”

Youssef helped as much as he could, then embarked on his own project, decorating the house inside and out to express the family’s almost unbearable hope and joy.

All that remained were the most difficult moments to wait for the news of the release.

A temporary truce in Gaza between Israel and Hamas, lasting at least four days, is set to begin on Thursday morning with the war now in its seventh week.

As part of the deal, there are plans for a hostage-for-prisoner swap and for more much-needed aid to get into the besieged coastal territory to help civilians suffering from severe shortages of food, medicine and basic services, including power.

The truce is set to take effect at 10am local time on Thursday (8am UK time), Israeli media reported.

Israel-Gaza latest: Four-day ceasefire agreed

Hamas has agreed to free 50 Israeli women and child hostages held by militants in Gaza, in exchange for Israel releasing 150 Palestinian women and children from Israeli jails.

It would also mean hundreds of trucks carrying humanitarian, medical and fuel supplies would be allowed to enter Gaza, while Israel would halt all air missions over southern Gaza and maintain a daily six-hour daytime no-fly window in the north, Hamas said.

But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s national security adviser said the planned hostage-for-prisoner swap has been delayed until at least Friday.

Tzachi Hanegbi said: “The release will begin according to the original agreement between the parties, and not before Friday.”

The deal will include the Red Cross visiting the hostages and bringing medicines to them, said Mr Netanyahu at a news conference.

He said that during the ceasefire, the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) will prepare for the continuation of the war.

“The war continues,” the prime minister repeated twice. “We are winning and we are going to continue to fight until we reach absolute victory.”

The 50 captives would be released over four days at a rate of at least 10 daily, his office earlier said.

Israel said the ceasefire would be extended an extra day for every additional 10 captives being freed, and a Palestinian source told the Reuters news agency that as many as 100 hostages in total could be released by the end of the month.

Hamas and other militant groups, including Palestinian Islamic Jihad, captured more than 240 hostages when Islamist gunmen rampaged through southern Israeli towns on 7 October, killing around 1,200 people, mostly civilians.

In retaliation, Israel has been bombarding the enclave for weeks as it bids to “wipe out” Hamas. At least 13,000 Palestinians have been killed in the strikes on Gaza, including at least 5,500 children, according to the Hamas-run government.

So far, Hamas has released four female hostages, another was rescued by Israeli forces, and two women captives were found dead by the military near al Shifa hospital.

Israel cut off all fuel imports at the start of the war, causing a territory-wide power blackout.

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Just days before the truce, Israel said it was determined to expand its ground offensive into the south of Gaza, where much of the population is now located after hundreds of thousands fled their homes in the north.

Residents in Gaza City said the fighting intensified overnight into Wednesday, with gunfire, heavy artillery and airstrikes.

“Apparently they want to advance before the truce,” said Nasser al Sheikh, who is sheltering with relatives in the city.

Rockets were fired at Israel throughout the day by militants but no injuries were reported.

South Korean military officials say the launch, directed at the East Sea, appears to be unsuccessful.

North Korea has carried out a suspected unsuccessful missile test, according to South Korea’s military, a day after Pyongyang said it successfully launched a spy satellite.

South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff said the launch came from North Korea’s capital region late on Wednesday. The missile was fired into the sea east of North Korea and the effort apparently failed, the Joint Chiefs of Staff said early on Thursday without giving details, including the type of missile fired.

The North Korean launch came hours after South Korea suspended parts of the 2018 inter-Korean military tension reduction agreement in response to the North’s launch on Tuesday of a military spy satellite.

The agreement had created a buffer zone and barred aerial surveillance on the heavily militarised border with the North.

On Tuesday, North Korea’s space agency said it had successfully launched a Malligyong-1 satellite into orbit, part of an effort to enhance surveillance capabilities against the United States and South Korean forces.

South Korea and its alllies condemned the launch as a violation of United Nations resolutions. Military authorities in South Korea confirmed that the spy satellite has entered orbit but said they will need additional time to assess whether it is functional.

The White House said the launch “raises tensions and risks destabilizing the security situation in the region and beyond”.

Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said his government had made a “strong protest against North Korea”.

North Korea has consistently asserted that building up its surveillance capabilities is a “sovereign right”, striking a defiant tone in the face of widespread opposition and as tensions rise on the Korean Peninsula.

The country had tried to launch what it called spy satellites on two previous occasions this year, but both of those efforts ended in failure.

Finland has announced it will close all but one of its border crossings with Russia after a rise in the arrivals of refugees and migrants whom the government claims Moscow is intentionally pushing to the country’s frontiers.

Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo said on Wednesday that as of the end of Friday, only its northernmost border crossing with Russia, Raja-Jooseppi, will remain open.

Finland had already shut four of its eastern border checkpoints last week and is set to close three of the four remaining crossing points.

“Raja-Jooseppi is the northernmost [border crossing], and it requires a real effort to get there,” Orpo said at a press conference.

‘Surge’ in arrivals

More than 600 asylum seekers have entered Finland via Russia in November, compared with only a few dozen in September and October. They were mostly from countries such as Yemen, Afghanistan, Kenya, Morocco, Pakistan, Somalia and Syria, according to border officials. Most were young men in their 20s, but some were families with children, border guard data and photos from news outlets showed.

Officials also said Finnish border guards and soldiers have begun erecting barriers, including concrete obstacles topped with barbed wire, at some of the crossing points.

After the recent closures, arrivals shifted north along the countries’ 1,340km (832-mile) border to Vartius and Salla, two border stations that still accepted asylum applications, Finland said.

“Undoubtedly Russia is instrumentalising migrants” as part of its “hybrid warfare” against Finland, Foreign Minister Elina Valtonen said on Wednesday.

Moscow has denied it is funneling desperate migrants and refugees to the Finnish border.

Finland joined NATO in April after decades of military non-alignment and pragmatic friendly relations with Moscow. Its border with Russia serves as the European Union’s external border and makes up NATO’s northeastern flank.

Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Maria Zakharova said on Wednesday that Russian authorities are ready to work together with Finnish officials to reach an agreement on the border issue. Finland should have “put forward its concerns to work out a mutually acceptable solution or receive explanation”, she argued.

On Monday, the Russian Foreign Ministry summoned the Finnish ambassador in Moscow to lodge a formal protest over the closure of the most used checkpoints on the border.

About 30 to 70 refugees and migrants are arriving each day at the Vartius checkpoint in Kainuu and the Salla checkpoint in Finland’s Arctic Lapland region, where winter conditions have meant temperatures of minus 20 degrees Celsius (minus 4 degrees Fahrenheit) and plenty of snow.

Andrei Chibis, governor of northern Russia’s Murmansk region, which borders Finland, on Wednesday posted pictures of migrants in a tent near the Salla checkpoint set up by the regional authorities to let them warm themselves up, eat and drink hot tea.

He described the situation as a “humanitarian crisis” and blasted the Finnish authorities, saying “foreign citizens can’t cross the border” to the Finnish side.

“At the EU border with Finland, Russian border guards have been letting people through without Schengen visas or EU residence permits. People who are being misled. People who are being used by Russia,” EU Commissioner for Home Affairs Ylva Johansson said on Tuesday.

“The Finnish border is the EU’s border. The European Union is behind you,” Johanssen said, adding that Finland has requested additional operational support from Frontex, the EU’s border agency, and up to 60 officers.

In 2011, 3,000 to 4,000 asylum seekers became stranded in no-man’s land on the border between Poland and Belarus as Warsaw deployed security forces to stop migrants and refugees from entering at a time of freezing winter temperatures and lack of access to vital supplies and medical care.

Lithuania and Latvia also reported sharp increases in the number of people trying to cross their borders at the time.

The EU accused Minsk of deliberately enticing migrants and refugees to Belarus and then funnelling them westwards with promises of easy entry into the bloc as part of a “hybrid attack” on its member states in retaliation for sanctions. Warsaw accused Russian President Vladimir Putin of masterminding the crisis.

Both Belarus and Russia denied the allegations.

Human rights groups accused Poland of conducting illegal pushbacks at its border and raised concerns for the wellbeing of the stranded refugees and migrants.