التصنيف: أخبار

Since Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine there has been a revolution in the role of military UAVs (unmanned air vehicles), which have enabled much smaller forces to prevail against the traditionally dominant military powers.

Has drone warfare become the dominant military capability for the underdog?

The first flight of a powered UAV was on 6 May 1896, several years before the Wright brothers’ first manned powered flight on 17 December 1903. However, both commercial and military exploitation of aviation potential focused on the manned option, limiting investment in UAVs.

But, the prolonged war in Afghanistan saw a surge of investment in long-range UAVs such as Predator and Reaper as developments in satellite technology led to the weight (and cost) of sensors falling dramatically. More recent conflicts have continued that theme.

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Earlier this week the Ukrainians claimed to have sunk another Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) ship – an Ivanovets missile boat – off the coast of Crimea. Video footage released suggests that this was a coordinated attack at night, using several maritime armed drones, that inflicted a series of deadly strikes on the Russian vessel.

Despite no longer having an established navy, Ukraine has used maritime drones to devastating effect, destroying around 20% of Russia’s BSF.

The Houthis have fired conventional anti-ship cruise and ballistic missiles against maritime and military vessels in the Red Sea; however, these missiles are expensive and are relatively easy to track and destroy.

But the Houthis have also sought to disrupt shipping in the Red Sea using armed drones. Shahed 136 drones supplied by Iran (similar to those sold to Russia to use against Ukrainian targets) and Samad drones (modified Iranian-supplied) have enabled the Houthis to continue their disruption of global shipping. Despite intense US and UK military retaliation, the drones are easy to hide, simple to operate, and easy to replace.

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Drones provide Ukraine with asymmetric advantage

Although Ukraine lacks the military might of Russia, Ukrainian forces have proven very adept at using, modifying and evolving armed UAVs to provide battlefield reconnaissance and attack options, such as Russian logistics hubs and fuel storage facilities.

Drones have provided Ukraine with an asymmetric advantage against a conventionally superior force.

And, on 28 January an armed drone managed to circumvent US military defences at a base in northern Jordan – Tower 22 – killing three and injuring 34 US service personnel.

Explainer: What we know about the sites targeted in US strikes on Iraq and Syria

It is not entirely clear how the drone managed to penetrate US defences, since there are a complex blend of procedural (lane/height/speed/time) and electronic (Identification Friend or Foe, etc) measures used to protect against such attacks.

But the attack was successful, and the resulting deaths have significantly heightened tensions in the region, and even led to suggestions from former president Donald Trump that we are on the “brink of World War Three”.

Drones offer increasingly effective precision strike capability

Drones are also being used to fly contraband into prisons, disrupt airports, and test military defences. They are widely available, easy to control (even from a mobile phone), and their impact and potential will not be lost on our potential adversaries, whether state or terrorist.

Military power was once defined by conventional fighters, ships and tanks, and was the exclusive domain of the major international powers.

Analysis: US strikes may have unintended and far-reaching consequences

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However, the latest generation of drones is fast becoming the weapon of choice for the military “underdog” and for terrorist organisations. They are cheap, capable, easily (and swiftly) adapted, and offer a small-scale surgical strike capability – on a budget.

The tactical impact of small drones might be limited by the small payload that the cheaper UAVs can carry, but they offer an increasingly effective precision strike capability – with demonstrable strategic impact.

The balance of military power is shifting – the West had better prepare accordingly.

Three people have been stabbed at a railway station in Paris.

The attack, at the major travel hub Gare de Lyon, ended when police arrested a suspect.

One person was seriously injured in the incident at around 7.35am local time (6.35 am in the UK). They are now undergoing surgery.

Paris police chief, Laurent Nunez, has said the attack does not appear to be terror-related, and has described the attacker as appearing to suffer from mental health issues.

He said the suspect was carrying residency papers from Italy and medicines suggesting he was undergoing treatment.

He is understood to have been armed with a knife and a hammer, and was tackled to the ground by a security guard according to the Paris prosecutor’s office.

Police are now analysing the alleged weapons, and say they are looking at a preliminary charge of attempted murder.

French 24-hour-rolling news channel BFMTV has reported that the attacker is aged 32 and from Mali.

French Interior Minister, Gerald Darmanin, posted a message on social media, describing the attack as an “unbearable act” and thanking those who detained the assailant.

France’s national railway company, SNCF, also posted on X to warn customers of disruption due to “an act of malicious intent”.

It said halls one and three of the station were “temporarily inaccessible ” due to intervention by the police and emergency services, with delays between Paris Gare de Lyon and Montargis, and between Paris Gare de Lyon and Montereau.

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The Gare de Lyon is one of the busiest train stations in Paris. It is a hub both for high-speed trains that link the capital to other cities and for commuter trains that serve the suburbs and towns in the Paris region.

Security has been ramped up in Paris, ahead of its hosting of the Olympic Games at the end of July.

Around 10,500 Olympians and millions of visitors will attend the event, with the opening ceremony due to take place on 26 July.

The US is trying to hit Iranian targets in the Middle East hard enough to stop attacks against American forces but not so hard that it triggers wider escalation or even direct war with Iran.

Experts in recent days have dubbed the strategy the “Goldilocks” approach because it needs to be just right.

Joe Biden made clear that a response was coming from the moment he accused “radical Iran-backed militant groups operating in Syria and Iraq” of killing three US service personnel in Jordan in a drone attack almost a week ago.

But the president also signalled his retaliation would be calculated rather than rushed, saying it would be “at a time and in a manner of our choosing”.

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This bought the administration time to try to navigate the slimmest of paths between a meaningful, powerful and effective military strike against Iranian interests and igniting new conflict in a region that is already at boiling point following the 7 October Hamas attack on Israel that prompted the Israeli war in Gaza.

By choosing not to hit Iran itself directly, Mr Biden has very deliberately sought to avoid escalation, even though he could potentially have justified strikes inside Iranian territory given Tehran’s alleged backing of the groups accused of the lethal drone attack in Jordan.

However, he has still chosen to go after Iran’s elite Quds force, within the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) – the most potent arm of Iranian military power in the region and the organisation that runs Tehran’s network of proxy militias.

This level of attack could yet trigger a direct, escalatory Iranian response against US targets. Washington will be hoping it won’t.

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Almost exactly three years ago, when Donald Trump was president, the US killed the top Iranian general who had led the Quds force during its most effective period of proxy warfare against US, British and other Western interests in the Middle East.

The assassination of Qasem Soleimani in a drone strike in Iraq in January 2020 triggered an Iranian missile attack against US forces, also in Iraq, in response – a moment of acute peril when the two sides last seemed on the brink of spiralling into all-out war.

That did not happen.

This time around, the Biden administration will likely have tried to work behind the scenes with Iran to reduce the risk of a similar kind of Iranian retaliation in kind.

Washington has also stated that Friday’s strikes were just the beginning, meaning that its adversaries are on notice.

The president again framed his threat to give a sense that this was the US calling the shots rather than being forced into taking action.

“Our response began today,” he said in a statement released by the White House on Friday. “It will continue at times and places of our choosing.”

He added: “The United States does not seek conflict in the Middle East or anywhere else in the world. But let all those who might seek to do us harm know this: If you harm an American, we will respond.”

For now, perhaps the biggest danger for the United States is that its barrage of strikes against 85 Iranian-linked targets in Iraq and Syria will not be sufficient to deter new attacks that harm or take more American lives.

If that happens again, the president may be left with no choice but to order strikes against Iran directly.

North Korea says it has tested cruise missiles fitted with new “super-large” warheads – as well as a new type of anti-aircraft missile.

The tests, reported by North Korean state media on Saturday, mark the regime’s fourth round of launches so far in 2024.

It comes a day after South Korea’s military said it detected the North launching multiple cruise missiles into waters off its western coast.

North Korean photos of the test showed a low-flying cruise missile striking a target built on a coastal shore, and another projectile soaring into the air after being launched from the ground.

North Korea’s official Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) did not specify the number of missiles tested or the details of their performance.

The KCNA report said the cruise missiles had “super-large” warheads and were tested as part of the country’s “normal activities” for military development and did not affect the security of its neighbours.

Cruise missiles are among a growing collection of North Korean weapons designed to overwhelm regional missile defences.

They supplement the country’s vast line-up of ballistic missiles, including long-range weapons aimed at the continental United States.

Analysts say anti-aircraft missile technology is an area where North Korea could benefit from its deepening military cooperation with Russia as the two countries align in the face of their separate, intensifying confrontations with the US.

In January, North Korea conducted two tests of a new cruise missile designed to be launched from submarines, which leader Kim Jong Un described as a meaningful step towards his goal of building a nuclear-armed navy.

The North also conducted tests of a long-range cruise missile, which it has described as nuclear-capable and can cover ranges of up to 1,240 miles – potentially putting US military bases in Japan within reach.

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Those cruise missile tests followed the launch of a new solid-fuel intermediate-range missile on 14 January, which underscored North Korean efforts to advance weapons that could target US assets in the Pacific, including the military hub of Guam.

Friday’s launches came hours after North Korean state media reported that Mr Kim reiterated his focus on strengthening his naval forces as he inspected the construction of warships at a shipyard in Nampho on the west coast.

In recent months, Mr Kim has emphasised efforts to build a nuclear-armed navy to counter what he portrays as growing threats posed by the US, South Korea and Japan, which have stepped up their military cooperation in response to his nuclear ambitions.

There are concerns that Mr Kim, emboldened by the steady advancement of his nuclear arsenal and strengthened ties with Russia, would further ramp up pressure against his rivals in an election year in the US and South Korea.

Experts say Mr Kim’s long-term goal is to force the US to accept the idea of the North as a nuclear power and negotiate security concessions and sanctions relief from a position of strength.

The US and Britain have launched a fresh wave of strikes against 36 Houthi targets in Yemen.

The further wave of assaults on 13 locations are designed to further disable Iran-backed groups that have attacked American and international interests in the wake of the Israel-Hamas war, according to US officials.

Launched by ships and fighter jets, these strikes on Yemen follow a US air assault on targets in Iraq and Syria on Friday.

That assault targeted other Tehran-backed militias and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard in retaliation for the drone strike on Jordan that killed three US troops last weekend.

Middle East airstrikes latest: US and UK launch new strikes in Yemen

US strikes on 10 Houthi targets involved F/A-18 fighter jets from the USS Dwight D Eisenhower aircraft carrier and American warships firing Tomahawk missiles from the Red Sea, US officials said.

According to officials, the USS Gravely and the USS Carney, both US navy destroyers, launched the missiles.

Britain’s Ministry of Defence said that RAF Typhoon FGR4s, supported by Voyager tankers, joined US forces in “further deliberate strikes against Houthi locations in Yemen”.

Saturday’s strikes marked the third time the US and Britain had conducted a large, joint operation to strike Houthi weapon launchers, radar sites and drones.

Washington had warned that its response after the soldiers’ deaths at the Tower 22 base in Jordan would not be limited to one night, one target or one group.

But the Houthis have been conducting almost daily missile and drone attacks against commercial and military ships transiting the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden and they have made clear that they have no intention of scaling back their campaign.

US defence secretary Lloyd Austin said in a statement that the military action, with support from Australia, Bahrain, Canada, Denmark, the Netherlands and New Zealand, “sends a clear message to the Houthis that they will continue to bear further consequences if they do not end their illegal attacks on international shipping and naval vessels”.

He added: “We will not hesitate to defend lives and the free flow of commerce in one of the world’s most critical waterways.”

Analysis:
Strikes may degrade Houthis attacks but there’s little sign they deter
US strikes may have unintended consequences
Biden may be left with no choice but to hit Iran directly

UK Defence Secretary Grant Shapps said the move was “not an escalation” adding that: “The Houthis’ attacks on commercial and military vessels in the Red Sea are illegal and unacceptable and it is our duty to protect innocent lives and preserve freedom of navigation.

“That is why the Royal Air Force engaged in a third wave of proportionate and targeted strikes against Houthi military targets in Yemen.

“We acted alongside our US allies, with the support of many international partners, in self-defence and in accordance with international law.”

The US defence department said the strikes targeted sites associated with the Houthis’ deeply buried weapons storage facilities, missile systems and launchers, air defence systems and radars.

On Friday, the US destroyer Laboon and F/A-18s from the Eisenhower shot down seven drones fired from Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen into the Red Sea.

The same day, the destroyer Carney shot down a drone fired in the Gulf of Aden and US forces took out four more drones that were prepared to launch.

Hours before the latest joint operation, the US took another self-defence strike on a site in Yemen, destroying six anti-ship cruise missiles, as it has repeatedly when it has detected a missile or drone ready to launch.

Meanwhile, speaking to Sky News, the leader of an influential Iraqi militia group said it does “not accept or acquiesce to the violation of Iraqi sovereignty”.

Dr Firas al Yasser from the Harakat Hezbollah al Nujaba group warned: “We have said it before in a clear and direct way, we don’t accept threats.

“At the moment, if any members of the Islamic Resistance in Iraq are targeted, or any jihadi or resistance fighter from any part of the resistance forces are targeted, there will be retaliation from us.”