التصنيف: أخبار

The fall of Avdiivka has handed Russia its most important battlefield victory since it seized Bakhmut following nine months of gruelling attritional warfare.

But was a lack of Ukrainian ammunition to blame for this battlefield loss, and is this rare Russian success the start of a dangerous new phase of the war?

Avdiivka has been the scene of some of the fiercest and most bloody battles of the war. Russian forces have laid siege to the small Ukrainian city for the past four months.

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The Ukrainian forces have been significantly overmatched by Russian troops, with some reports suggesting that areas of the frontline had 10 times as many Russian soldiers as Ukrainian.

The Russian Air Force has also been playing an increasingly prominent role in the battle, taking advantage of the relatively close proximity of the sanctuary of Russian airspace.

Delivering over 60 bombs a day on to Ukrainian frontline positions eventually rendered the Ukrainian defence of Avdiivka untenable, as the Russian forces have slowly been encircling the city.

Ukraine’s decision to retreat from the frontline city appears justified militarily, but that has not stopped President Zelenskyy and President Biden highlighting Ukraine’s shortage of weapons and the increasingly critical nature of further delays to securing the $60bn of aid currently being delayed by the US Congress.

Although Ukraine will be keen to secure long-term funding support from the US, the critical Ukrainian need at this time is weapons and ammunition.

The EU has approved ongoing funding support for Ukraine, but converting this commitment into ammunition available to frontline soldiers is a challenge.

For the past two years, the majority of the weapons provided to Ukraine have been sourced from the war chests of Western nations.

However, those stocks are now running low, and there are no ready supplies available commercially.

Activating an individual nation’s defence industrial base to design, build and deliver replacement weapons is one of the only ways to meet Ukraine’s future military requirements.

The West has successfully sourced some replacement ammunition – such as artillery shells – but these tend to be used in attritional warfare which favours the larger force, so this is not Ukraine’s priority.

In contrast, Ukraine has seized the initiative in this war through the West providing high-technology, precision strike weapons such as the UK Storm Shadow missile.

This weapon has proven very effective at attacking Russian targets in occupied Ukraine, but stocks are running low – Ukraine want more.

However, this missile is 30 years old, and many of the components are obsolete, so industry cannot easily provide replacement stock.

The West could provide Ukraine with more modern weapons from its inventory or directly from the manufacturers; however, technology is the West’s asymmetric advantage on the battlefield.

There is always a risk that some of the West’s donated weapons will end up on the black market and eventually in the hands of the Russians or Chinese, and the West cannot afford to compromise its own national security.

As a result, the only sustainable way to provide Ukraine with enduring military support is through a coordinated investment in the international defence industrial base.

However, the investment, development, production and testing process all takes time – which Ukraine does not have.

Although Russia has achieved a rare victory by seizing Avdiivka, its military forces suffered very high casualties during the four-month siege of the city.

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Offensive action in the winter is difficult; the cold weather is unforgiving, there is limited natural cover from leaves and foliage, and the ground is frozen making it hard to dig foxholes.

So why was Avdiivka such a priority for Russia?

The 24 February marks the two-year anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and President Putin will have been very keen to demonstrate battlefield success to boost the moral of its forces.

Putin will also want to demonstrate progress in his “special military operation” in advance of the Russian presidential elections being held next month.

However, most analysts believe that neither Russia nor Ukraine have sufficient military resources to mount a significant offensive anytime soon, and that the coming year could be characterised by a series of smaller indecisive actions along the frontline.

But, if the West fails to address Ukraine’s desperate need for munitions, that will create a window of opportunity for Russian forces, and one that President Putin might be tempted to exploit.

Nasser hospital – the main medical centre serving southern Gaza – is “not functional anymore”, the World Health Organisation (WHO) has warned.

Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry has made similar comments. “It’s gone completely out of service,” said spokesperson Ashraf al Qidra.

“There are only four medical teams – 25 staff – currently caring for patients inside the facility.”

Israeli forces raided the hospital in Khan Younis on Thursday after saying it had information Hamas fighters were hiding there.

Hostages may have been kept at the facility, while it is possible some captives’ bodies are there too, Israel added.

Hamas has denied the accusations, calling them “lies”.

Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, head of the WHO, said his teams had been denied access to the facility on both Friday and Saturday.

It meant they were unable to “assess the conditions of the patients and critical medical needs”, Mr Ghebreyesus posted on X.

“Nasser hospital in Gaza is not functional anymore after a weeklong siege followed by the ongoing raid,” he said.

“There are still about 200 patients in the hospital. At least 20 need to be urgently referred to other hospitals to receive health care; medical referral is every patient’s right.

“The cost of delays will be paid by patients’ lives. Access to the patients and hospital should be facilitated.”

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Mr al Qidra said the hospital’s water supply had stopped, sewage was flooding emergency rooms and the remaining staff have no way of treating intensive care patients.

The Israeli military said it had arrested at least 100 suspects on the premises of Nasser hospital, killed gunmen nearby and found weapons inside.

It said it does not target doctors and patients.

Sky News has not been able to independently verify the reports.

Israel is thought to be preparing an assault on the southern city of Rafah, home now to more than a million mostly displaced Palestinians.

Alexei Navalny’s body has been transferred to a morgue, according to a Russian news outlet, with guards reportedly “mysteriously” searching prison cells the night before his death.

Many have blamed Russian President Vladimir Putin for the opposition leader’s death, which was reported on Friday, and calls are growing for an independent investigation.

His body has been taken to the Salekhard District Clinical Hospital’s morgue, Novaya Gazeta Europe reports, but as of Saturday no post-mortem examination had been performed.

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A paramedic for the Salekhard ambulance service told the news outlet usual procedure did not appear to be followed in the wake of his death.

“Usually, the bodies of people who die in prison are taken straight to the Bureau of Forensic Medicine… but in this case it was taken to the clinical hospital for some reason,” he said.

“They drove him to the morgue, brought him in, and then stationed two policemen in front of the door.

“They might as well have put up a sign saying ‘something mysterious is going on here’.”

While the death was first reported on Friday, one inmate told the publication there was a “mysterious commotion” on Thursday night.

“It all started when they really sped up our evening search, this usually happens on holidays when the guards are in a hurry to go and celebrate, but [that day] wasn’t a holiday,” the inmate said.

“Then they locked us up, forbade any movement between barracks, and tightened security.

“We heard cars drive on to the prison grounds late at night but couldn’t see through our cell windows what they were.”

He also said guards conducted an in-depth search of the prisoners’ cells on Friday morning, seizing phones and other items.

Novaya Gazeta Europe’s source said he thought authorities appeared wrong-footed by his death, claiming the warden and the head of operations looked distraught.

His mother, Lyudmila Navalnaya, visited the prison – the IK-3 penal colony in Kharp, situated in the Arctic Circle – on Saturday, while his wife shared an image of the two together on Instagram.

She was reportedly told he died of “sudden death syndrome”, but she has not been able to see the body.

Meanwhile tributes are still being laid by the Solovetsky Stone, in Lubyanka Square in Moscow, which is a monument that commemorates victims of political oppression.

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More than 400 people have been arrested at events in memory of Mr Navalny, according to rights group OVD-Info.

Sky News’s Moscow correspondent Diana Magnay said visitors to the monument are being told by police to move on and not stay at the memorial for a long time.