الكاتب: kafej

Tense and difficult negotiations continue at the United Nations Security Council in an effort to break the deadlock crippling the world’s most powerful decision-making authority – as death and despair rain down on Gaza.

Al Jazeera has learned that Malta’s ambassador to the UN, Vanessa Frazier, has circulated a new resolution among the Council members for consideration and a potential vote, hoping to finally pass a resolution on the war on Gaza, after serial failed efforts over the past month.

Malta is one of 10 elected members of the Council and has been the penholder on children in armed conflict since 2022. This position gives Malta the opportunity to play a leading role in the UNSC’s efforts to protect children in conflict zones. Diplomatic sources have told Al Jazeera that this new resolution is being drafted with a focus on children in the hopes that all 15 members of the UNSC can agree on protections for children in the ongoing conflict.

On Friday, Adele Khodr, UNICEF Middle East and North Africa regional director, said, “Children’s right to life and health is being denied.” The UN agency went on to warn that the lives of one million children in the besieged enclave are “hanging by a thread” as child health services almost collapse across the Gaza Strip.

There is renewed hope that the UNSC will finally respond to the war on Gaza, not only because there have been new attempts to find compromise language that will appeal to all its members, including the United States, but also because there has been a shift in the stance of the US itself. President Joe Biden called for a humanitarian pause to Israel’s war for the first time on November 2.

The US says it is actively engaging with the elected members – Albania, Brazil, Ecuador, Gabon, Ghana, Japan, Malta, Mozambique, Switzerland and the UAE. This is significant because its veto power has been one of the reasons why several of the previous Council resolutions have failed since violence broke out on October 7.

But, as ever, in the Council, there is much wrangling over the exact language of the resolution. Russia and China have vetoed a US resolution calling for a “humanitarian pause”, a phrase suggesting it would be conditional and time-limited. Most of the rest of the Council wants the resolution to include the word “ceasefire”. The choice of a single word in the resolution – pause or ceasefire – has meant an impasse in the UN’s top body, empowered with the maintenance of international peace and security.

With the Maltese resolution, sources told Al Jazeera, a key question that might come up for debate is the duration of the pauses in fighting. Humanitarian groups, and even US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, have said the four-hour pauses that Israel has agreed to are currently not enough to ease humanitarian suffering meaningfully. However, it is unclear whether the US will agree to pauses that last several days at a stretch.

Still, one thing has changed since the previous resolutions. The UN General Assembly – which represents all of the UN member states – has expressed its clear opinion, calling for a humanitarian truce that passed on October 27 with 120 votes out of the 193 members. Such a resolution is not binding but has moral weight as a temperature check of the world’s mood.

Why has the UN failed to agree to a ceasefire in Gaza?

Previous UNSC draft resolutions calling for a ceasefire in Gaza have failed. Two resolutions drafted by Russia did not get enough votes, with the US among the countries that voted against them. Even though a resolution proposed by Brazil received 12 votes out of the 15 member states, the US vetoed the draft. And, Russia and China vetoed a resolution drafted by the US.

While the five permanent members of the UNSC – China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom and the US – have the power to veto any resolution that they do not like, it remains reasonably rare. The US and Russia are the two countries that have exercised their veto power the most in the past. In recent years, the US has mostly used its veto to protect its ally Israel.

This was not always the case. Prior to the 1970s, the US often allowed resolutions to pass that Israel did not like.

In 1956, it voted with other UNSC members to criticise Israel for a military operation in Gaza the previous year. Egypt controlled Gaza at the time.

Will Israel abide if a resolution passes?

More recently, on December 23, 2016, during the last days of the Barack Obama administration, the UNSC passed Resolution 2334.

This resolution reaffirmed that Israel’s settlements in occupied Palestine, including East Jerusalem, “had no legal validity, constituting a flagrant violation under international law”. It added that the settlements were a major obstacle to the vision of a two-state solution. There was considerable pressure from Israel and within the US for the Obama administration to veto it, but in the end they abstained. The resolution passed with 14 votes.

While the Council’s resolution, which also called for immediate steps to prevent violence against civilians, is “binding international law”, it was ignored by Israel.

What happens if a country defies a UNSC resolution?

If the resolution is broken, the next step is for the Council to take punitive action. This would be done in a follow-up resolution, which addresses the breach and calls for action.

The UN has taken action in the past by sanctioning breaching countries. However, in recent years, there has been pushback from permanent members Russia and China, who are not keen on the UNSC adopting new sanctions.

Under the UN Charter, the Council can go even further and order the authorisation of an international force. A notable example of this was in 1991 when a US-led military alliance was created to reverse the invasion of Kuwait by Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein.

The problem lies in any potential follow-up resolution. There are virtually no circumstances under which the Biden administration would support a punitive resolution that would take forceful action against Israel.

Currently, there are backchannel efforts from the US administration to try and get Israel to restrain its military operations and stop killing civilians. But they are not working.

Israel does not currently seem at all concerned about accountability under international law. Israel and the US are not signatories to the Rome Statute that set up the International Criminal Court (ICC).

The court has made it clear that it does have jurisdiction regarding crimes committed in the Gaza conflict. Violations of UNSC resolutions and breaches of international humanitarian law, such as targeting hospitals and indiscriminate bombardment of civilians, could form part of a compelling case.

But even if the ICC takes action, there is no way that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would voluntarily surrender himself into custody in The Hague. The same way, we have not seen Russian President Vladimir Putin offer himself up to the ICC judges when an arrest warrant for war crimes was issued against him by the ICC in March.

All this does not mean that circumstances will not change at some point. And if you breach international law, there is no statute of limitation on war crimes. The ICC and a separate International Independent Commission of Inquiry, set up by the UN Human Rights Council in 2021, are gathering evidence on the current conflict. This will remain on the record for the world to see.

What has the UN done so far?

If we go back into history, the UN has established peacekeeping forces to tackle issues involving Israel. This includes the UN Emergency Force (UNEF), which deployed international peacekeepers on the border between Egypt and Israel in 1956.

Two other missions are still operating, to this day. The UN Disengagement Observer Force (UNDOF) was established in 1974 after the agreed disengagement of the Israeli and Syrian forces in the Golan Heights. In 1978, the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) was formed to confirm Israeli withdrawal from Lebanon and to restore international peace and security.

These forces have a mandate to report any breaches, monitor the situation and provide a calming presence.

Yet, there are limits to what these forces can accomplish by way of establishing peace. There is currently no calm on the front line between Lebanon and Israel, known as the Blue Line, with the heaviest clashes for years between Hezbollah and Israeli forces. The Golan Heights situation has also been very tense for a long time, including during the Syrian war.

But all that only matters if the UNSC can first agree on a resolution. It is about to be tested again.

Iceland has declared a state of emergency after thousands of tremors raised fears of a volcanic eruption.

Authorities have ordered thousands living in the southwestern town of Grindavik to evacuate as a precaution and have closed the nearby Blue Lagoon tourist attraction.

The area around Mount Thorbjorn on the Reykjanes Peninsula has been shaken by hundreds of small earthquakes every day for more than two weeks due to a build-up of volcanic magma – molten rock – around three miles (5km) underground.

Land in the region has risen by 9cm (3.5in) since the end of October, according to the Icelandic Met Office (IMO).

Scientists are closely monitoring the situation for any indication the seismic activity is getting closer to the surface.

Iceland, which sits above a volcanic hotspot in the North Atlantic, averages an eruption every four to five years.

The most disruptive in recent times was the 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano, which spewed huge clouds of ash into the atmosphere and led to widespread airspace closures over Europe.

The Reykjanes Peninsula on Iceland’s southwestern coast includes a volcanic system that has erupted three times since 2021, after being dormant for 800 years.

The evacuation of Grindavik came after the IMO warned “significant changes have occurred in the seismic activity” and that magma could have extended under the town, which is located about 33 miles (53km) from the capital Reykjavik.

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The IMO said: “At this stage, it is not possible to determine exactly whether and where magma might reach the surface.”

Iceland’s civil protection agency ordered residents to leave the area but stressed it was not an emergency evacuation. It said there was “plenty of time to prepare… and drive out of town calmly”.

“There is no immediate danger imminent, the evacuation is primarily preventive,” the agency added.

Israeli attacks on Gaza City’s al-Shifa Hospital have dramatically intensified in the past few hours, with staff reporting “a catastrophic situation”, MSF says. Palestinians sheltering inside are appealing to the international community for help.

As the humanitarian crisis in Gaza escalates and the number of Palestinian civilian casualties climbs, what is Israel seeking to achieve with its military response to the Hamas attacks?

Conducting an effective joint (air, land and maritime) military offensive campaign requires considerable planning and preparation.

Although the Israeli political objective of “destroying Hamas” creates an interesting soundbite, as a practical and achievable military objective it lacks credibility – the military cannot destroy an ideology. Regardless, Israel has declared war on Hamas, and appears determined to “resolve the Hamas issue” whatever the cost.

Israel-Gaza latest: Explosions and ‘intense clashes’ reported at Gaza hospital

But to what end?

With the ground offensive on Gaza City under way, the residents have been told to leave northern Gaza for sanctuary in the south. However, for many Palestinian civilians that is not a credible option; besides, the IDF is also bombing the south of Gaza, so despite the risks, many have stayed in Gaza City.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to have his sights set on seizing Gaza City.

Despite Hamas resistance, there is a certain air of inevitability that – eventually – the IDF will achieve that objective, even though it will prove extremely difficult to stop Hamas from subsequently continuing to launch surprise attacks from the Gaza Metro (the extensive labyrinth of tunnels under Gaza City).

Hamas is no match for the Israeli military, but Hamas can deny Israel the opportunity to achieve its objective by simply relocating many of its fighters to southern Gaza, where they can blend in with the locals and “live to fight another day”.

What next?

Before the conflict, the unemployment rate in Gaza was around 50%, and decades of economic decline had left a bleak outlook for the region. Now, devastation has been wreaked on the Gaza City infrastructure, thus further eroding the prospects for those residents returning after the conflict ends.

And, although the mounting casualties resulting from IDF military action look alarming, experience suggests that these current figures will ultimately be dwarfed by deaths resulting from disease, lack of water and medicines.

Although mounting international diplomatic pressure continues to call for some form of ceasefire, what influence does the international community actually have in this conflict?

Is there any political appetite – and resolve – to find an enduring solution to the conflict, or will the international community once again be content to apply a well-intentioned sticking plaster to curtail the current conflict, only for it to erupt again in the not-too-distant future?

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Is regional peace even possible?

There is no military solution to this situation, but have all possible political options been exhausted?

Given the apparent irreconcilable positions of the warring factions, peace will require determined, brave, imaginative and committed engagement from the international community – probably led by the US and Saudi Arabia.

However, successive generations have failed to commit the energy, resources and political capital to establish a path to peace, leading to the inevitable escalation in violence and destruction that have become trademarks of the conflict.

Nobody is suggesting that the path to peace is easy. It is not. However, the failure to exhaust all possible options has led inexorably to the horrors of war that we witness today. War is brutal and indiscriminate, and military veterans who have served their nation know first-hand the tragic consequences of the failure of political resolve.

In the First World War, over 20 million people died, and over 21 million were wounded. The horrific war was finally brought to an end 105 years ago this weekend. Armistice Day initially commemorated the cessation of hostilities on the Western Front of the First World War, which took effect at 11 in the morning – the “11th hour of the 11th day of the 11th month” of 1918.

Following the Second World War, Remembrance Day – held on the second Sunday of November – became the national focus to commemorate all those who lost their lives in war.

Although few veterans of the Second World War survive, Remembrance is an opportunity to pay our respects to those who made the ultimate sacrifice and reflect on the horrendous consequences that war entails.

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Politicians declare war, but the tragic and brutal consequences are felt more widely – both civilian and military.

We should never forget the horrific consequences of a failure of politics, which should serve as a stark reminder that – however difficult the road to peace – the consequences of war are far worse.

“At the going down of the sun, and in the morning, we will remember them” – Robert Laurence Binyon (1869-1943)

Israel is facing mounting international pressure – including from its main ally – to do more to protect Palestinian civilians in Gaza.

The number of people killed in the Gaza Strip in the past five weeks now stands above 11,000, according to health officials in the territory.

Israeli forces have been waging war on Hamas militants who carried out a deadly rampage in southern Israel on 7 October.

Israel initially said more than 1,400 people were killed in the Hamas attack but the figure has since been revised down to around 1,200.

Follow latest: ‘Thousands’ flee Gaza’s largest hospital after ‘intense violence’ nearby

In his strongest comments to date on the plight of civilians caught in the crossfire, US secretary of state Antony Blinken told reporters on a visit to India: “Far too many Palestinians have been killed; far too many have suffered these past weeks.”

But Mr Blinken reaffirmed his country’s support for Israel’s campaign to ensure that Gaza can no longer be used “as a platform for launching terrorism”.

It comes as French President Emmanuel Macron said Israel must stop bombing Gaza and killing women and babies.

Speaking to the BBC on Friday, Mr Macron said France “clearly condemns” the “terrorist” actions of Hamas, but also recognises Israel’s right to protect itself.

“We do urge them to stop this bombing” in Gaza, he said.

Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has also said his country is prepared to take injured Palestinians from Gaza, as hospitals in the enclave report being overrun.

In London, a pro-Palestinian march will take place later today. It is the latest in a series of protests and has attracted headlines after Home Secretary Suella Braverman dubbed them “hate marches” due to a small minority of participants chanting inciteful slogans.

This weekend’s march is complicated further by it falling on Armistice Day.

How Israel has responded

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said world leaders should be condemning Hamas, not Israel.

“These crimes that Hamas (is) committing today in Gaza will be committed tomorrow in Paris, New York, and anywhere in the world,” Mr Netanyahu said.

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Israel has said it does not aim its attacks at civilians and tries to protect them, and that Hamas militants have hidden command centres and tunnels underneath hospital buildings.