الكاتب: kafej

Hundreds of thousands of people gathered in central London to march in solidarity with Palestine, chanting “Stop bombing Gaza” and “Ceasefire now”.

Metropolitan police said about 300,000 people attended the pro-Palestine march, which wound its way from Hyde Park to the US embassy about 5km (3 miles) away.

The “National March for Palestine” on Saturday is the latest in a series of rallies in the British capital to show support for the Palestinians since Israel launched an air and ground offensive on the Gaza Strip following Palestinian group Hamas’s attacks on southern Israel on October 7.

The march took place as right-wing counterprotesters clashed with police after a week of angry debate over whether to permit the event in support of Palestinians to take place on Armistice Day, which marks the end of World War I and commemorates those killed in military action.

Police said 82 counterprotesters were arrested to “prevent a breach of the peace”.

For the first four weeks of Israeli assault on Gaza, Syed Hassan Nasrallah was conspicuously silent. When he finally spoke, a week ago, the world listened anxiously: Would the leader of the Lebanese Hezbollah, the strongest militia in the region, declare a full-scale war on Israel?

It was much ado about nothing. In his well-known fiery style, Nasrallah reiterated Hezbollah’s views on regional issues and warned Israel.

There was no big announcement, and the speech was not followed by fighters storming into Israel or even a token salvo of missiles. The standoff continued as usual: tension, skirmishes, and occasional flare-ups, all measurable and containable.

Not the time to declare war

His second speech, delivered Saturday, was much of the same. At least two things indicated that Saturday’s speech would also not be a significant declaration of war on Israel.

First, its timing was led not by current events but those of some 40 years ago: Saturday is Hezbollah Martyrs Day, commemorating one of the first and most venerated suicide bombers who blew himself up amid Israeli troops in southern Lebanon in 1982, killing at least 80.

The second indicator was that Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi is attending the Arab-Islamic summit on Gaza in Riyadh on Saturday, his first trip to Saudi Arabia since the two countries resumed diplomatic relations in March.

Now, Tehran has said on several occasions that it does not want direct war with Israel, aware that it would easily become a wider conflict and drag in the United States. For its part, Washington sent the same message.

But between doing nothing and “direct engagement”, Iran had and still has a middle-of-the-road option: engaging by proxy, through Hezbollah and the Houthis who would gladly show Israel their teeth.

If Arabs will not go to war, if Iran will not go alone, the question on many people’s minds was whether its proxies might go, saving everyone’s face.

The answer was always: Yes and no. Or rather, no and yes.

Hezbollah never wanted to mount a full-scale land attack — and the Houthis could not do it across 2,000 kilometres (about 1,250 miles), even if they wanted to.

But the two groups remain tied to Tehran, which provided them with initial training, equipment, and the know-how for indigenous production of weapons much more sophisticated than the homemade rockets both started with.

The arsenal

Hezbollah’s arsenal is an eclectic mix of old and new, Eastern, Western, Iranian and locally produced weaponry. Some of it was demonstrated in an “open day” the group staged on May 21 in southern Lebanon.

We had seen many of these weapons already, but the mix was interesting. Electronic rifles, shoulder-fired missiles, and lightly armed quadbuggies can tell us a lot about how Hezbollah would fight.

At least two types of electronic anti-drone guns were demonstrated — believed to be useful in blocking smaller tactical drones, causing them to drop dead.

Anti-aircraft shoulder-fired missiles — like the Chinese SK-18, also known as QW-18 — are a potent deterrent against low-flying aeroplanes and helicopters, although drones are difficult for them to hit.

Rather than cumbersome, well-armoured vehicles, Hezbollah showed a fleet of practical four-wheel all-terrain lightly armed quad buggies that are fast, mobile, and can deploy on any terrain in northern Israel. Some carry machine guns, others anti-tank missiles like the Kornet or its Iranian copy, Dehleviyeh. Those teams can set up ambushes unnoticed and escape quickly.

Against naval targets, Hezbollah has the Noor, an Iranian version of a Chinese anti-ship cruise missile it used to hit and nearly sink an Israeli corvette in 2006. Reliable sources have said the militia now also has the Russian-made Yakhont, which is much more potent and has a longer range.

Finally, a recent Houthi demonstration of firepower gives us a clue about Hezbollah’s. The Yemeni group shot down one of the biggest US armed reconnaissance drones, MQ-9 Reaper, allegedly using a local modification of the old Soviet AA-10 Alamo air-to-air missile. If they can convert the AA-10 to be fired from the ground and tracked to the target, Hezbollah must be able to.

Will they, or won’t they?

Hezbollah is certainly ready and capable of a careful dose of escalation with Israel to a point just short of a full war, at any time.

How long and how much it will remain politically held back from such action may depend on Iran and Nasrallah, who does not need to go into the nitty-gritty of military action. He can content himself with words, warnings, and threats. The military wing of Hezbollah would do the rest.

So far, most of the fighting has been by drones, missiles, and artillery, and limited small-unit incursions on the ground, penetrating a few kilometres into enemy ground and then retreating — typical reconnaissance in force. Casualties have been contained, if the loss of more than 60 militiamen can be called that.

Using its Burkan short-range rockets – which carry up to 500 kilograms (1,100 pounds) of explosives — and Iranian suicide drones, Hezbollah damaged or destroyed Israeli observation towers built on high ground along the border to reconnoitre into Lebanon.

To date, the first real escalation came from Israel, not Hezbollah: On Saturday, its combat drone hit a vehicle in Zahrani, 45km (28 miles) inside Lebanon, as well as other yet unidentified targets deep in the region of Tyre.

Hezbollah is certain to retaliate, most probably by sending some of its formidable long-range rockets deep into Israel, targeting cities beyond the reach of Hamas rockets. But, as Nasrallah told the world on Saturday, there will be no big war.

New York City, United States – A clock on the electronic display flickers to noon above the bustling Times Square subway station in New York City. Amid the lunchtime crowd of commuters and tourists stands María, a 31-year-old single mother from Ecuador whose daily life revolves around this transit hub.

It is here, in the tunnels underneath the city, that María earns the money she needs to survive.

On her back is her two-year-old daughter, and in her hands is a colourful tray of candy, crammed with packages of M&Ms and Kit Kat chocolates and sticks of Trident gum.

From the Times Square station, María can hop on and off the Number 7 train, a popular link to the borough of Queens. As she walks from one carriage to the next, she repeats “candy” and “dollar” — two of the few words she knows in English — hoping to make a sale.

Most people, however, look away. Others become aggressive, María said.

New York City is in the midst of an immigration crisis, with more than 113,300 asylum seekers arriving since 2022 — and too few shelters to house them. With the city’s immigration policies in the spotlight, María’s interactions with the public can be tense.

“People insult us or record us without authorisation, accusing us of importing bad habits and poverty from home,” María said. “They don’t understand our situation.”

María — who is using a pseudonym to protect her privacy — is part of a population of largely Ecuadorian candy sellers who make a living on the New York City subway system.

Peddling sweets is familiar work for María: It is the same job she used to do in her hometown in the province of Cotopaxi. But it is also a necessity. Without legal papers authorising her stay in the US, finding steady employment is difficult, seemingly impossible.

“It’s what my cousin and other women from Ecuador I know do because there are no job opportunities. It’s the only way for us to survive,” María explained.

But each sale only nets her one dollar, maybe two. After working 13 hours straight, from 7am to 8pm, she might come home with $50 on a good day, $10 on a bad one.

Still, the pressures in her home country forced her and other Ecuadorian migrants to arrive here and eke out a living on the subway lines.

A ‘third wave’ of Ecuadorian migration

By the end of September, the US Border Patrol had apprehended 117,487 Ecuadorians for the fiscal year 2023 — more than four times the previous year’s total.

Anthropologist Soledad Alvarez, a professor at the University of Illinois Chicago, considers this spike part of Ecuador’s third major “wave” of emigration since the 1980s.

She told Al Jazeera the current exodus began in 2014, “caused by the decline in oil prices”.

“Then the pandemic came and hit Ecuador severely,” she said. “Since then, this crisis has deepened under the administrations of Lenin Moreno and Guillermo Lasso, leading to substantial migration in recent years.”

The National Institute of Statistics and Censuses in Ecuador (INEC) reports that income poverty — defined as earnings of less than $89.29 per month — reached 27 percent in June. Extreme poverty, meanwhile, hit 10.8 percent.

Alvarez also points to the deteriorating security situation in Ecuador as a motivation for leaving.

“Increasing violence, fuelled by insecurity and drug trafficking, has forced thousands of Ecuadorians to forcibly leave in recent years,” Alvarez said.

Last year was the worst for criminal violence, with 25 homicides per 100,000 people. And in 2023, the situation escalated. The homicide rate in Ecuador is now the fourth highest in Latin America.

María witnessed many of her neighbours and acquaintances leaving as a result of the violence.

The tipping point for her was when the father of her child passed away during the COVID-19 pandemic. She was alone, racking up debt, and what little she earned was sometimes stolen as the country’s crime rates ticked upwards.

“It’s not just jobs and food that we’re lacking. Ecuador has become extremely dangerous. We now live in constant fear,” María said.

She left Ecuador in the first week of April, travelling north through the Darién Gap, a dangerous stretch of jungle that connects South America to Central America. For two months, she walked and caught buses, spending $3,000 in expenses for the journey.

María said arrived in the US three months ago. She and her child now live in Elmhurst, Queens, where she rents a small space in the living room of her cousin’s family for $800 a month.

Risks to selling candy

Back home in Ecuador, María said selling candy was primarily women’s work. But in New York, she competes with men and even children on the subway platforms, hawking candy she bought at a wholesale store.

The presence of young children has sparked particular concern among the public. Some subway riders have taken to social media to vent their frustration.

“This is child exploitation and should be banned,” one user on TikTok said. Another called on law enforcement to intervene.

Under New York state law, child labour under age 14 is largely prohibited and can be regarded as abuse. But Alvarez, the anthropologist, said many new arrivals from Ecuador are unaware of the local laws.

“They are ensnared in a reality where sheer survival is their sole objective. They grapple with traumas and escape from destitute circumstances,” she told Al Jazeera.

Additionally, the Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA) prohibits unauthorised commercial activity in the subway. Police can fine the candy sellers $50 if they catch them, so María is constantly on the lookout for their uniforms.

“We run away from the police when we see them. A ticket can cost what we earn in a day. Police also tell us that we can lose the custody of our children,” she said.

Gustavo Espinoza, a community organiser, explained to Al Jazeera that there are services and organisations working to educate new immigrants about the resources available to them.

However, those without legal immigration papers are often reluctant to seek assistance due to their fear of deportation, Espinoza said. They “live in constant fear”.

“There is evidently a barrier,” he explained. “There are organisations that want to help but they don’t reach the immigrants who need assistance but are afraid to ask or seek help.”

In August, New York City Mayor Eric Adams estimated the city could end up paying up to $12bn to support migrants over the next three years.

In its $107bn budget for 2024, the city council approved $16m for Promise NYC, a programme that offers stipends for childcare to low-income parents, including undocumented ones.

But advocates say those efforts are not enough to help migrants and asylum seekers like María, who rarely goes anywhere without her child.

Some are pushing for the New York State Senate to pass a 2023 bill that would offer universal childcare to all parents, regardless of immigration status. But that legislation is still pending.

For María and others, though, there seems to be no alternative but to carry on with their daily routines, children in tow.

María’s daughter rides on her back throughout the day: She only ever sets the two-year-old down briefly, keeping a watchful eye on the child. On top of her cargo of candy to sell, María carries around cookies and a bottle of milk to feed her child, who often dozes as her mother works.

“I can’t leave my daughter alone at home. Nobody will care for her,” María said.

Life, at least for the time being, means balancing both childcare and selling candy in the subway: “There’s no other option.”

Dim torchlights began to flicker as it got dark at 6pm on Thursday – the electricity had cut out in the afternoon.

Families carrying children picked their way through the streets of the Jenin refugee camp, attempting to evade crossfire during eight hours of non-stop shooting and drone attacks that had begun that morning when Israeli soldiers forced their way in with a large convoy of armoured vehicles.

After the Israeli army announced via loudspeaker that it would allow a window of just two hours for civilians to get out, people started to leave. But nobody knew how long the raid was going to last.

Many families fled to the hospital, looking for safety, while the fighting spread to the city centre and the Israeli army surrounded the camp.

Even before its big push into Jenin on Thursday, the Israeli army had been levelling the streets with armoured bulldozers for several days – during daylight hours and through the night. This was nothing new for the people of this camp. Since its establishment in 1953, it has been the frequent subject of raids aimed at destroying infrastructure and arresting Palestinians.

The latest fighting has left at least 14 Palestinians dead, some of them fighters. They have been buried among the tombs of other killed fighters following a large funeral procession on Friday that ended in the Jenin camp cemetery.

Pakistan fail to overhaul the Kiwis in their last group stage game against England, setting up an India vs New Zealand semifinal.

New Zealand have confirmed their place in the Cricket World Cup semifinals after Pakistan failed to overhaul them during their concluding group game against England.

Pakistan, the 1992 champions, needed to beat England by 287 runs in Kolkata on Saturday to squeeze into the semifinals at the Kiwis’ expense on net run rate.

However, England batted first, closing off that avenue, and Pakistan’s fate was then sealed when they were faced with the impossible task of scoring more than 300 runs by the 40th ball of their reply to the champions’ 337-9.

New Zealand will face undefeated hosts India in the first semifinal in Mumbai on Wednesday with Australia and South Africa clashing in Kolkata 24 hours later.

The Kiwis, runners-up at the last two World Cups, finished fourth in the 10-team table with 10 points after five wins and four losses.

Pakistan, who had defeated New Zealand in a rain-hit game last weekend, can also get to 10 points if they defeat England.

However, it is impossible for them now to better their rivals’ run rate.

Australia beat Bangladesh

In the other group stage game on Saturday, Mitchell Marsh recorded his career-best score as Australia beat Bangladesh by eight wickets.

Marsh reached 177 not out off 132 balls as Australia registered their highest successful run-chase in World Cup history.

He put on 175 runs off 135 balls for the unbeaten third wicket with Steve Smith, who scored 63 not out as Australia finished with 307-2 in 44.4 overs.

This was after Adam Zampa picked 2-32 in 10 overs to help restrict Bangladesh to 306-8.

It was Australia’s seventh straight win in the tournament. The five-time champions had started slow with losses to India and South Africa, but bounced back in style to confirm a semifinal spot.

Australia finished third in the standings with 14 points – equal with second-placed South Africa but lower on net run-rate.

Semifinal form

India defeated New Zealand by four wickets when they met in the group stage at Dharamshala.

Daryl Mitchell made 130 and Rachin Ravindra scored 75 in their team’s total of 273 all out. However, Virat Kohli’s 95 saw India reach their target with two overs to spare.

South Africa crushed Australia by 134 runs in their round-robin clash at Lucknow four weeks ago.

Quinton de Kock made 109 and Aiden Markram hit 56 as the Proteas piled up 311-7.

In reply, five-time champions Australia were shot out for just 177 with more than nine overs to spare.