الكاتب: kafej

Vegetable trader Afsar Uddin was distraught. He needed to pay nearly 50 percent more to bring a truck of vegetables to his shop in Karwan Bazar, the largest wholesale market for fresh produce in Bangladesh’s capital Dhaka.

The ongoing countrywide road-rail-waterway blockade imposed by the main opposition Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) and its allies has disrupted the supply chains and significantly pushed up the cost of transport because only a fraction of the trucks and buses have been on the road during the shutdown.

“Just days ago, I needed to pay 15,000 Bangladeshi takas ($136) for a truck to bring vegetables from the countryside to my shop in Dhaka. Now it has become 22,000 takas ($200) as very few truck owners are allowing their vehicles to ferry goods,” said Uddin. This is on the heels of already high inflation in the country, he pointed out.

“If we don’t increase the prices again, we will bear losses. But if we do, then we will end up with unsold, rotten vegetables,” Uddin lamented.

Tailor Samrat Mia, who lives on a daily paycheque by sewing and altering ready-made garments at Dhaka’s New Market, is also frustrated with the lack of business. “We are sitting here for the whole day but no customers. Who would come out to buy and alter pants amidst this political crisis?” he asked. “But we have a family to [take care of] and mouths to feed. Will [politicians] bother?”

Political unrest in Bangladesh is crippling the country’s already shaky economy and hurting small traders like Uddin and Mia, as the opposition parties attempt to push Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to quit ahead of a general election scheduled for January.

BNP and its allies have been demanding the restoration of a caretaker government system to oversee national elections as they believe no free and fair election can take place under Hasina’s regime.

Hasina’s party — the Awami League — has been in power since 2009, and the last two general elections of 2014 and 2018, respectively, were marred with opposition boycotts and allegations of massive vote rigging.

Hasina, the world’s longest-serving female head of a government, is also accused of brutally suppressing the opposition and dissenting voices during this nearly 15-year period.

In 2011, the country’s parliament dissolved the caretaker government, a neutral election-time administration that had successfully conducted at least four elections since the South Asian nation’s democratic transition from military dictatorship in the early 90s. Both the Awami League and BNP came to power twice, alternatively, in those elections.

The BNP’s efforts in the last few years to restore the caretaker government have invited police brutality and thousands of court cases. Now the party and its allies have vowed to step up disruptive events ahead of the national elections and declared a series of nationwide blockades since early November.

But the brunt of this political impasse is ultimately being borne by ordinary Bangladeshis.

Rahul Amin, a travel agency executive, is paying at least 10 times his normal fare to work as there are very few buses, autorickshaws and taxis plying, pushing up prices.

“We have already been struggling hard with rising food prices and inflations for the last year or so. Now this political turmoil is wreaking havoc in the market,” Amin told Al Jazeera. “I understand the opposition’s demand for a free and fair election, but the whole economy will tank if these [blockades] continue.”

Economy in tatters

The escalating political standoff is causing serious concerns for the South Asian economy, which has already been squeezed by the global effects of the COVID-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine. Shrinking foreign currency reserves and strong inflationary pressures pushed Hasina’s administration to seek a $4.7bn loan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF) earlier this year.

At a recent public forum, Abdur Rouf Talukder, the governor of Bangladesh’s central bank, admitted that the country’s economy has hit “rock bottom” and they are navigating “a very strenuous period”.

During the July-September quarter, Bangladesh’s balance-of-payments deficit – its import of commodities, capital and services higher than its exports – increased to $2.8bn. At the same time, its current-account deficit – which occurs when a nation sends more money abroad than it receives – increased to $3.93bn. According to central bank data, foreign currency reserves have fallen to a new low of $20.66bn.

Last month, earnings through exports, the lion’s share of which comes from the ready-made garments (RMG) industry, fell by 13.64 percent to $3.76bn, the lowest in the last 26 months, according to the Export Promotion Bureau.

Inflow of remittances, another important economic lifeline after exports, also fell by 4.4 percent during the last quarter.

Now, the blockades are causing Bangladesh’s economy to lose 65 billion takas ($588m) a day, as per the Federation of Bangladesh Chambers of Commerce and Industry (FBCCI), the country’s apex trade body.

“All businesses, small and large, are affected by these blockades,” Mahbubul Alam, president of FBCCI, told Al Jazeera. “We have seen how political violences disrupted the economy for a long period back in 2014 before elections [then]…. The crisis this time will be even bigger.”

Zahid Hussain, former chief economist of the World Bank’s Dhaka office, warned of the same. “The current political impasse is looking similar to 2014 in which the economy suffered damages worth several billion dollars. This time it may hurt more not just because the economy is bigger, but also because the buffers are thin to begin with,” he said.

Hussain, however, said the current economic crisis cannot be attributed to the political impasse only. “[It] has been there for more than 15 months and counting,” he said. While the global shocks have played a role in creating some of these pressures, the country’s monetary, exchange rate, financial and fiscal policy response did not help either, he added.

Since the start of the pandemic, Bangladesh had capped the lending rate at 9 percent for more than three years until this past July. This gave businesses the scope of grabbing funds at real interest rates of nearly zero (borrowing rate minus inflation, which was hovering at around 10 percent).

The central bank’s policy to keep the value of the country’s currency – the taka – artificially inflated also exacerbated inflation.

“Now, a deeper political impasse and violence will add loads of salt to pre-existing injuries,” Hussain said.

Financial analyst Zia Hassan told Al Jazeera that while the political impasse obviously exacerbated economic instability, the roots of the struggle around the balance of payments and dollar reserves can be traced back to deeper structural weaknesses in Bangladesh’s import-dependent, and undiversified economy.

In the fiscal year ending June 2023, Bangladesh imported goods worth $90bn against its export of $55bn – over 80 percent of which came from RMG products.

Bangladesh’s narrow export base, which is solely reliant on RMG products, and over-reliance on remittance inflows, have left it vulnerable to external shocks for many years now, Hassan says.

Need for ‘restoring democracy’

Hassan also attributes the current economic downfall to an oligarchy of political elites entrenched in the Sheikh Hasina regime who have control over banking, bureaucracy and business.

Corruption in the country’s banking sector caused a loss of 100 billion takas ($900m) in the 2016-17 fiscal year, found a study by the South Asian Network on Economic Modelling (SANEM), a Bangladeshi think-tank.

Global Financial Integrity (GFI) data indicates that between 2008 and 2017, Bangladesh lost a staggering $7.53bn – or 17.95 percent of its international trade – per year on average to trade misinvoicing where companies declared a lower value for their imports and exports to pay lower taxes.

This oligarchy, which has been accused of corruption and money laundering, has stymied reforms that threaten their economic interests, Hassan said. “Without a political settlement that restores genuine democracy by dislodging entrenched oligarchic networks, meaningful economic reforms are unlikely to be undertaken or implemented effectively,” he added.

Opposition leaders and activists meanwhile say their ongoing blockades are a part of their quest to break up this oligarchy and “restore democracy” in Bangladesh. “In the last 15 years, the Hasina governments and their beneficiaries have conducted unprecedented corruption. The whole economy is in shambles because of that,” said Ruhul Kabir Rizvi, joint secretary general of BNP.

“Blockades are obviously detrimental to the economy, but if we don’t fight to restore democracy now and allow another sham election, the economy as well as the whole country will be in bigger trouble,” he told Al Jazeera.

Ali Riaz, distinguished professor of politics and government at Illinois State University in the United States, told Al Jazeera that the absence of an inclusive democratic system and pursuing cronyism have led to the economic crisis of Bangladesh.

“The ruling party needs to understand that stubbornness, use of brute force, silencing opposition and machination may provide an aura of invincibility, but they do not deliver a solution to the economic crisis,” he said. Blaming the opposition or the global economy will not put an end to it, he added.

Riaz said the Awami League needs to address the sources of problems – break the hold of a small group of beneficiaries in various sectors. “It is not an easy task,” he said, “and only a new political settlement with popular mandate can deliver this.”

Who: India vs New Zealand
When: Wednesday, November 15, 2pm (08:30 GMT)
Where: Wankhede Stadium, Mumbai, India

India may be the outstanding team at the ICC Cricket World Cup 2023, but coach Rahul Dravid has warned their semifinal against New Zealand in Mumbai represents the “pointy end in a tournament”.

The hosts go into the match with a perfect played nine, won nine record – the first time any side had achieved such a feat at a World Cup featuring a round-robin format.

“You’re at a pointy end in a tournament now,” Dravid said.

“There is going to be certain amount of pressure but I think the way we have responded to the pressure so far gives us a lot of belief.”

India are well stocked in all departments, with star batter Virat Kohli the tournament’s leading batsman with 594 runs and captain Rohit Sharma not far behind on 503.

India also boast a formidable fast-bowling lineup in Jasprit Bumrah, Mohammed Siraj and Mohammed Shami.

If successful teams are fortunate as well as good, then India certainly had a lucky break when an injury to all-rounder Hardik Pandya paved the way for Shami’s return, with the experienced seamer having since taken 16 wickets in five matches at a stunningly low average of under 10.

In addition, spinners Ravindra Jadeja and Kuldeep Yadav are also capable of taking wickets without being flogged for runs.

Rohit leading by example

Wednesday’s match takes place at Rohit’s Wankhede Stadium home ground, where India bowled out Sri Lanka for just 55 to win by 302 runs in the group stage, with the aggressive 36-year-old opener leading from the front at what could be his last World Cup.

Dravid said Rohit’s batting has “cracked open” games for his team.

“We’ve talked about playing in a particular way. You cannot do that unless your leader really buys in and actually shows by example.”

And yet the fact remains India have been waiting since a 2011 triumph over Sri Lanka in Mumbai to win a third World Cup title, while their last major piece of silverware was the 2013 Champions Trophy.

Rohit said while a semifinal was a high pressure situation, his side were always under intense scrutiny in cricket-crazy India.

“If you are an Indian cricketer, then whatever the format, whatever the tournament, there is always pressure. Because you hear the same voice from everywhere that we have to win the match tomorrow…So, I think in terms of pressure, it becomes mandatory for Indian cricketers.

“There is pressure, but we have tried so hard in all these years to keep that aside and focus more on our game, strategy, and the way we play,” he added.

Before this World Cup, Rohit spoke about having “unfinished business”, with the 36-year-old saying Wednesday: “Now it’s just about business, the pure business of getting the job done for the team.”

‘Everything starts again’

New Zealand, in contrast to India, are in the semifinals despite losing four of their nine group games but will approach the match with a clean slate and confidence in their ability to upstage the in-form hosts.

Williamson, who returned from knee surgery for the World Cup and recovered from a fractured finger during it, is expecting a tough test.

“We know it’s going to be a really tough challenge. They’re a side that’s been playing extremely well, but we also know come finals time everything starts again and it’s all about the day,” Williamson told reporters in his pre-match press conference on Tuesday.

New Zealand’s proven pace trio of Trent Boult, Tim Southee and Lockie Ferguson are capable of succeeding against even the strongest batting lineup, with miserly left-arm spinner Mitchell Santner an often under-rated threat.

Runners-up at the last two World Cups, New Zealand also boast a break-out rising star in Rachin Ravindra, with the 23-year-old left-hander having already scored 565 runs.

The son of Indian-born parents, Ravindra is also the first New Zealander to compile three hundreds at a single World Cup, earning rich praise from his captain.

“It’s not just the volume of runs that he’s achieved so far but how he’s been scoring them and how it’s been geared towards trying to move the team forward,” Williamson said.

Williamson, who knows India well from playing in the Indian Premier League, added: “We’re expecting a fairly blue crowd that will be supporting their team.”

Form

There’s not much to be said about India’s form after they have gone unbeaten in a home tournament.

Meanwhile, New Zealand have seen a resurgence after their mid-tournament blip and will look to build on their big win over Sri Lanka.

India: W W W W W

New Zealand: W L L L L

Head-to-head

New Zealand hold a slight edge in their 10 World Cup meetings with India, having won five matches, including the 2019 semifinal. Meanwhile, India have won four, including their last match in Dharamshala last month. One match, at the 2019 World Cup, ended in a no-result due to a washout.

India team news

Barring any last-minute injury concerns, India are certain to field the same team that has taken them to the semifinals.

Predicted XI: Rohit Sharma (captain), Shubman Gill, Virat Kohli, Shreyas Iyer, KL Rahul, Suryakumar Yadav, Ravindra Jadeja, Mohammad Shami, Jasprit Bumrah, Kuldeep Yadav, Mohammed Siraj

New Zealand team news

New Zealand are set to field the same team that beat Sri Lanka in their last group match.

Predicted XI: Devon Conway, Rachin Ravindra, Kane Williamson (captain), Daryl Mitchell, Tom Latham, Glenn Phillips, Mark Chapman, Mitchell Santner, Tim Southee, Lockie Ferguson, Trent Boult

Tens of thousands of people have joined a rally in Washington, DC, to voice solidarity with Israel in its fight against Hamas and condemn anti-Semitism.

Tuesday’s “March for Israel” took place on the National Mall under heavy security, with senior members of Congress addressing a crowd of people waving the flags of the United States and Israel.

Many raised placards calling on the Palestinian armed group Hamas to free the at least 200 people taken captive during their surprise October 7 attack, which Israeli authorities say killed more than 1,200 people.

Israel’s response – weeks of relentless attacks on the Hamas-run Gaza Strip, which officials there say have killed more than 11,300 people – has exposed deep divisions in the US, Israel’s most staunch supporter.

At the top of the mall, the top Democrats in Congress – Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic leader Hakeem Jefferies – stood together on stage with Republicans Mike Johnson, the House of Representatives speaker, and Senator Joni Ernst from the central state of Iowa. They joined hands as Schumer, the highest-ranking Jewish elected official in the US, chanted, “We stand with Israel.”

But beneath the projection of unity, Democrats and the US itself are sharply divided over Israel’s course and its treatment of Palestinians.

The country has seen weeks of largely pro-Palestinian demonstrations amid growing calls for a ceasefire and President Joe Biden has toned down some of the full-throated solidarity with the Israelis from the war’s early weeks to urge more restraint.

Hamas a target

A succession of speakers took the stage to condemn the Hamas attack and what they said was the virulent spread of anti-Semitism internationally.

Israeli President Isaac Herzog addressed the crowd via video from the Western Wall in Jerusalem. After “the largest massacre since the Holocaust,” he said, “let us call out together, never again.

“No one will break us,” he pledged. “We will rise again … There is no greater and just cause than this.”

Rachel Goldberg, whose 23-year-old son, Hersh Goldberg-Polin, was snatched by Hamas after the group attacked a music festival, also addressed the crowd, noting those taken captive ranged in age from just nine months to 87 years and were of different religions and nationalities.

“Our hearts are bruised and seeping with misery,” she said. “Why is the world accepting that 240 human beings from almost 30 countries have been stolen?”

Many of the demonstrators wore Israeli flags wrapped around their shoulders or held small Israeli flags in their hands turning their anger on Hamas.

Banners and placards showed the names and photos of people being held captive in Gaza, with the crowd shouting, “Bring them home!”

Other signs read “Annihilate Hamas” and “From the river to the sea, we support democracy.”

Security was tight, with trucks blocking access to the mall and police keeping a close watch on the area.

Melanie Lubin of Olney, Maryland, wore a flag that combined the Stars and Stripes with Israel’s blue and white Star of David.

Asked about the death toll in Gaza and criticism of the way Israel has conducted its military campaign, she said: “I think everyone is concerned about what is happening in Gaza and to civilians in Israel. Israel is doing its best. This is a war. Israel did not start this war.”

Mark Moore, a 48-year-old Christian pastor from Chicago, said he considered Israel “the only bastion of freedom” in the Middle East.

“I’m praying for peace… secured through victory so it does not continue with this endless cycle of violence,” he said.

Iceland, which has 33 active volcanic systems, declared a state of emergency and ordered the mandatory evacuation of the town of Grindavik on Saturday.

Here is what to know:

Where is Grindavik and what is happening there?

Grindavik is a fishing town on Iceland’s southwestern peninsula of Reykjanes. It is home to 3,800 people. Around 900 earthquakes hit southern Iceland on Monday alone, adding to the tens of thousands of tremors that have shaken up the south of the country in recent weeks.

Grindavik residents described being evacuated from their homes by police in the early hours of Saturday as the ground shook, roads cracked and buildings suffered structural damage.

Scientists have linked these earthquakes to the movement and spreading of magma, which is around 5km (3 miles) underground. Land in the region has risen by 9cm since October 27, according to the Icelandic Meteorological Office.

Authorities fear that molten rock can rise to the surface and hit Grindavik. Experts expect an eruption soon since the magma is at a shallow depth.

The Icelandic Meteorological Office said on Monday there was a “significant likelihood” of an eruption in the coming days on or just off Reykjanes, despite the size and intensity of earthquakes decreasing.

What precautionary measures are being taken?

The residents were told to leave Grindavik on Saturday and were allowed to briefly return on Sunday to collect their belongings including documents, medicines or pets, with Icelandic police and civil protection vehicles on standby.

Almost all of the town’s residents found accommodation with family members or friends. Only between 50 and 70 people were staying at evacuation centres, a rescue official told the Reuters news agency.

The Blue Lagoon geothermal spa, a tourist attraction in Iceland also announced its temporary closure until November 16. The spa is located on the peninsula, “amid moss-covered lava fields”, according to its website.

Scientists are monitoring the situation to examine the flow and proximity of the magma to try to predict the likelihood of eruption.

On Tuesday, the authorities were preparing to build defence walls around a geothermal power plant in the southwestern part of the country that they hope will protect it from lava flows in the event of an eruption.

 

What can happen if the volcano erupts in Iceland?

The lava can potentially threaten the town of Grindavik and the Blue Lagoon. Geothermal pipelines that supply hot water to thousands of homes are also under threat.

There also might be a risk of toxic fumes and air pollution as a result of the eruption.

“We have a fissure that’s about 15km [9.3 miles] long, and anywhere on that fissure we can see that an eruption could happen,” Vidir Reynisson, head of Iceland’s Civil Protection and Emergency Management told the AFP news agency.

However, the end of the fissure goes into the sea, which means the eruption can occur on the ocean floor, which would likely cause a large ash cloud.

Volcanic eruptions also pose a serious hazard to aviation because they can spew highly abrasive ash high into the atmosphere where it can cause jet engines to fail, damage flight control systems and reduce visibility.

Has this happened in Iceland before?

Iceland sits above a volcanic hotspot in the North Atlantic and averages an eruption every four to five years.

The 2010 eruption of the Eyjafjallajokull volcano was one of the most disruptive eruptions recently, resulting in widespread airspace closures over Europe and costing airlines an estimated $3bn as they cancelled more than 100,000 flights.

After 800 years, three eruptions have taken place on the peninsula of Reykjanes near the Fagradalsfjall volcano: in March 2021, August 2022 and July 2023. Previous eruptions did not cause damage, having occurred in remote valleys.

Volcanologists believe the new cycle of increased activity could last for several decades or centuries.

Is the capital Reykjavik at risk?

Grindavik is around 40km (25 miles) southwest of Iceland’s capital, Reykjavik, where authorities have not ordered residents to evacuate, indicating that they do not think the country’s biggest city will be impacted by an eruption.

Bill extending funding into early 2024 was passed with Democrat support and needs to be signed off by midnight on Friday.

The United States’s House of Representatives has passed a temporary spending bill to avert a government shutdown that could have left as many as 1.5 million public workers without pay.

The legislation, which would extend government funding until mid-January, now heads to the Senate, where Democrats have a slim majority and Republicans have also voiced support.

To prevent a shutdown, the measure must be signed by President Joe Biden before current funding for federal agencies expires at midnight on Friday.

The 336-95 vote was a victory for new House Speaker Mike Johnson, who was forced to reach across the aisle to Democrats when hard-right conservatives revolted against his plan.

“Making sure that government stays in operation is a matter of conscience for all of us. We owe that to the American people,” Johnson said earlier on Tuesday at a news conference.

Johnson was elected as speaker less than three weeks ago, following weeks of tumult that left the chamber without a leader, even as the war in Ukraine and the Israel-Hamas war spurred calls for quick congressional action.

With a slim 221-213 majority, he can afford to lose no more than three Republican votes on legislation that Democrats oppose.

Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer, a Democrat, said in a statement after the vote that he was pleased the bill passed “with a strong bipartisan vote,” adding that he would work with his Senate Republican counterpart, Mitch McConnell, to pass it “as soon as possible”.

The stopgap spending bill would extend government funding at current levels into early 2024 in a two-part process that temporarily funds some federal agencies to January 19 and others to February 2, giving lawmakers more time to craft the detailed spending bills that cover everything from the military to scientific research.

The bill passed with 209 Democratic and 127 Republican votes, while 93 Republicans and two Democrats voted against it.

Some hardline Republicans said they were frustrated that the bill did not include the steep spending cuts and border security measures they sought.

Democrats, meanwhile, pressed for their own add-ons – including aid for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan – but each now looks set to be dealt with separately, with a $61bn request from the White House for Kyiv looking particularly precarious amid conservative opposition.

Johnson’s predecessor as speaker, Kevin McCarthy, was removed by a handful of hardline Republicans after a similar vote in September to avert a shutdown that also relied on Democratic votes.